Player prop “unders” hit 55% of the time between 2017 and 2019, and Week 6 continued the slight move toward more unders paying off after a hot start for “overs” to start the season.
The percentage of props going under has now hit 52.5% after six weeks of the 2020 season. After that hot start for the “overs,” we have seen a correction back to the downside for the majority of prop categories. At a macro level, it appears that passing attempts are down slightly based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Rushing-yards props are difficult to take on the over but can be extremely valuable unders to bet.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.
My written plays went 3-1 on Sunday to continue the winning ways. Kirk Cousins came through in the fourth quarter, with our one blemish fading the rushing ability of Lamar Jackson. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 35-22 for +9.8 units.
We are hitting the point of the season when player usage is better understood, so we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. Some of the props written may not be the most comfortable bets, but taking a loss despite leaning on a sound process is a useful skill that all sports bettors should master.
Let’s take a quick look at what the betting market is implying for Monday Night Football before diving into some of the best player props, according to our tool.