Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
Our Week 6 picks went 8-6 and won +2.92 units overall. Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tool to identify the best betting opportunities in the Cleveland Browns–Denver Broncos Week 7 Monday Night Football matchup.
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One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, we saw 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
Most overs hit in Week 1, but that has corrected back to the under every week since. Week 6 was as close to even as we have seen for both sides this year, meaning bookmakers might be getting more efficient as the season progresses. Roles and usages tend to stay sticky unless injuries change the outlook for individual players.
The best category to target continues to be the under on receiving yardage. Target share is somewhat consistent but more difficult to predict than rushing attempt share, so reception totals are also a worthwhile betting category for this same reason. For bettors looking to target overs, rushing attempts and combined rushing and receiving yardage numbers present the best opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is utilizing PFF's Player Props Tool, as the ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Thursday Night Football.
RB Melvin Gordon: Over 10.5 receiving yards (-115)
Gordon has covered this 10.5-yard number in five of his six games and has three games with at least 21 receiving yards. Last week’s receiving yard prop opened at 13.5 and closed at 12.5, so 10.5 is considerable value for bettors at -117 odds.
There should be ample opportunity for Gordon to cover this prop against a Browns defense that ranks 29th among all teams in PFF team coverage grade against running back screens (49.4), especially if the game script for the road-underdog Broncos dictates a pass-heavy attack in the second half.
PFF’s player props tool gives Gordon a 55.3% chance of covering this prop and recording at least 11 receiving yards.
WR Tim Patrick: Under 44.5 receiving yards (-114)
Patrick broke out with a career-high 75.6 receiving grade in 2020 and has sustained that production into 2021, even as the Broncos have struggled with injuries to primary receivers Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy.