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College Football Betting 2021: Week 9 college football over/under value picks

Pasadena, California, USA; Oregon Ducks defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux (5) tries to get past UCLA Bruins offensive lineman Alec Anderson (70) in the second half at Rose Bowl. Oregon defeated UCLA 34-31. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

After a mediocre 2-2 week on betting totals in last week’s article, we’ll be looking for a bounce-back into the green in Week 9 of the 2021 college football season.

An added variable when looking into college football totals this week will be weather forecasts, with some games having the potential to be impacted by heavy winds. As the season gets into November and December, monitoring forecasts will need to be part of the weekly checklists going forward. This week, there are five totals that stick out in a card heavily favoring the unders.

I’ll go over my biggest edges here, but be sure to use PFF Greenline as your go-to tool for finding college football betting value this week. 

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Bowling Green Falcons @ Buffalo Bulls UNDER 51.5

Projection: 47.2

This game could have some nasty weather at kickoff, with the current forecast calling for a combination of rain and wind. Bowling Green’s offense can’t even move the ball in perfect conditions, so this will only make it tougher for the Falcons.

Bowling Green Offense | Through Week 8
EPA/Play Offense Grade Pass-Blocking Grade Receiving Grade Run-Blocking Grade
Rank 121st 124th 119th 124th 114th

There really hasn’t been a bright spot on this offense, which has failed to hit 30 points in any game this season. While Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been anything special overall, it will have a big advantage in the pass rush. The Bulls likely won’t have stud edge rusher Taylor Riggins, but the unit ranks 13th in pressure rate this season. Riggins has missed the past two games, but Buffalo still managed to rack up seven sacks and 28 pressures last week against Akron.

Bowling Green’s best pass-blocking grade of the entire season was just 58.5, and the unit has put up four games with marks of 30.0 or below. This Buffalo pass rush should continue to live in the backfield after last week’s dominance.

On the other side, Bowling Green’s defense got off to an amazing start this season but has slipped in recent weeks. It ranks 60th in EPA per play but has a chance to get back on track against a Buffalo offense that has graded out at 99th this season. The Bulls have been fine on the ground yet rank just 92nd in yards per attempt.

Neither of these offenses has been able to consistently move the ball through the air, and considering the current forecast, those struggles should continue in Week 9. 

PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NFL game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.

Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.

North Texas Mean Green @ Rice Owls UNDER 56.5

Projection: 50.9

Both of these offenses have been horrendous in 2021, but Rice’s unit is the more abysmal of the two, ranking 129th in success rate and 127th in EPA per play. Three players have taken at least 50 dropbacks at quarterback, and none have been effective. Additionally, the Owls rank 129th in rushing success rate and grade outside of the top 100 in pass blocking and run blocking.

While the North Texas defense hasn’t been great overall, it does have some pieces in the front seven, which has led to rankings of 25th in pressure rate and 30th in rushing success rate allowed. Look for edge defender Grayson Murphy to have a big day against a weak offensive line, as his 30 pressures are tied for 17th-most among edge defenders and his 86.7 pass-rushing grade ranks 23rd at the position.

Meanwhile, this North Texas offense has been almost as bad as Rice’s unit on the other side. It actually ranks one spot lower in offensive grade (122nd) and 116th in EPA per play. Just like the Owls, it has struggled at every single position, ranking outside the top 100 in passing grade, pass-blocking grade, receiving grade, rushing grade and run-blocking grade.

Quarterback Austin Aune has seen his passing grade plummet to 57.8 after a very solid 87.1 grade in 2020. Rice has actually played relatively well against the pass, ranking 38th in coverage grade and 41st in pass-rushing grade, and the defense should be the next in line to stifle the Mean Green passing attack.

Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.

Colorado Buffaloes @ Oregon Ducks UNDER 49

Projection: 44.9

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