Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities. Nowhere is that showcased better than during the NFL playoffs.
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Let’s dive into the best value bets for Sunday’s wild-card action, starting with the Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers before moving to San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys and wrapping up with Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs.
QB JALEN HURTS under 0.5 interceptions (+110)
Hurts has done a good job preventing turnovers in his second season, as he finished with just nine interceptions and ranked 15th among quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play percentage (min. 400 passing attempts).
With a strong cold front, showers and storms predicted for Tampa Bay on Sunday, the weather could have an effect on both quarterbacks and force both offenses to rely more heavily on the run – which would mean fewer overall passing attempts deep targets for Hurts, both of which are logically correlated with interception probability.
At plus juice, there is simply too much value to pass up tailing Hurts’ passing touchdowns prop, especially given that PFF’s player props tool gives Hurts a 54% chance to not throw an interception.
TE CAMERON BRATE under 1.5 receptions (+140)
Despite multiple injuries and other factors decimating the Buccaneers wide receiver room, Brate hasn’t stepped up to earn a bigger role in Tampa's offense.
Aside from Brate’s 7.8% target share this season, the Buccaneers only run 12 personnel (one running back, two tight ends, two wide receivers) on 20% of plays, which is slightly below the NFL's 21% average. Given that Rob Gronkowski is likely to repeat his 95% snap volume from Week 18 due to all of the Buccaneers' injuries, Brate should play receive a snap share as he did in Week 18, when he played 28% of Tampa Bay's offensive snaps and received just three targets — neither of which should inspire much confidence.
Not only has Brate recorded more than two receptions in just three games all season — zero times since Week 12 — but according to PFF’s player props tool, Brate has just a 45.5% chance to cover this number on Sunday.
Even though Tampa Bay is a popular Super Bowl pick, the Eagles pose a bad matchup for the defending champions, which is why PFF Greenline sees value in both the Eagles covering the 8.5-point spread and winning straight up.
If Eagles cornerbacks Darius Slay (83.9 coverage grade) and Avonte Maddox (76.2) can limit Bucs star Mike Evans, then Tom Brady will be left to rely on just Gronkowski, Brate, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson and Jaelon Darden as his weapons – none of whom would typically be the No. 1 option in a high powered offensive attack.
Furthermore, Hurts has been great for the Eagles coming off a largely uninspiring rookie season. He finished this year ranked 10th among 39 qualifying quarterbacks in offensive grade and third in rush grade. He was helped by PFF’s seventh-ranked offensive line, which has a 22% advantage in the passing game and an incredible 84% advantage in the run game over Tampa’s defensive line, per PFF’s OL/DL matchup chart.
The other important factor to take into consideration in this matchup is the weather. Tampa Bay is expected to experience “a strong cold front, showers and storms” on Sunday, which plays into the Eagles' hands, as rainy conditions make it difficult to throw downfield. The Eagles offense's strength is their rushing attack, which is ranked fourth in terms of yards per carry.