Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
We went 2-2 on our Week 8 written plays. The plus price options ended up paying off slightly, as we won +.16 units. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have not gotten off to a good start in 2021. Last week brings us to 11-18 for -7.54 units in 2021 and a 103-90 record across the two seasons for 9.56 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn things around as we look toward the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 9 main slate of NFL action.
GREEN BAY PACKERS QB JORDAN LOVE OVER 1.5 PASSING TDs (+131)
Chaos creates opportunities in the prop market. Aaron Rodgers' absence has had an outsized impact on the spread and total, but an even more drastic correction occurred in the player prop market. Rodgers' passing touchdown prop has been priced at 2.5 all season with a slightly positive price on the over. The drop-off to Love will impact the Packers offense, but this is still a unit that should have all of its viable pass-catching options healthy.
The matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is enticing. Kansas City sits 23rd in PFF’s opponent-adjusted coverage grade and has no one capable of slowing down Davante Adams. The spread and point total both indicate that this a positive expected value bet, as the Packers will be forced to keep pace with what is still the best offense in the NFL. Playing from behind in a back-and-forth matchup, Love should have plenty of opportunities to throw for multiple touchdowns. The Packers' high pass rate in the red zone should continue regardless of who is at quarterback. Love throwing for at least two passing touchdowns is one of the highest value over bets on Sunday's slate.