Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 7 wasn't a great week, as we finished 1-2, and down slightly from a units won perspective. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, things have not gotten off to the right start in 2021. Last week brings us to 9-16 for -7.7 units in 2021. A 101-88 record across the two seasons for 9.4 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s turn things around this week and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 8 main slate of NFL action.
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS QB TOM BRADY OVER 2.5 PASSING TDS (+116)
A difficult matchup for the Buccaneers passing offense has caused bookmakers to once again offer Brady’s passing touchdown prop at a plus number. He has exceeded this total in four games this season and has gone 3-1 when offered at a plus price.
The New Orleans Saints defense sits right outside the top-five defenses based on PFF's grading system but has the No. 1 ranked unit in stopping the run.
This should benefit the Buccaneers passing game despite the Saints also ranking as a top-five unit in coverage. The Saints have struggled to get after opposing passers, as they have generated just the 20th-best pressure percentage. Brady buries defenses when he operates in a clean pocket, as he has posted a 97.3 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket the past five seasons, ranking first among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks over this timeframe. Beating Brady requires opposing defenses to generate pressure, but that shouldn't be a problem against New Orleans' average pass rush. One way to play that is on the Buccaneers' 5.5-point spread, but an even better option is Brady over 2.5 passing touchdowns at a plus price.