Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 13 was exactly breakeven, as this article's plays finished 2-2. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, we are now 22-27 for -5.42 units in 2021 — a 114-95 record across the two seasons for +11.68 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s heat up in the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 14 main slate of NFL action.
TE MARK ANDREWS, BALTIMORE RAVENS: UNDER 4.5 RECEPTIONS (+105)
Baltimore heads into this Week 14 AFC North showdown as the most injured team in the NFL based on wins above replacement (WAR) lost due to injury. The Ravens defense is the most injured unit in the NFL, but Baltimore's offensive line is not far behind.
Cleveland Browns defensive linemen Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney should live in the Ravens’ backfield, as Tyre Phillips and Alejandro Villanueva have recorded the 66th- and 75th-best pass-blocking grade at the tackle position this season. If Cleveland terrorizes Lamar Jackson with some early pressure, Andrews could be forced to pass protect for the first time this season.
Even if Andrews continues to run a high percentage of routes, there is no guarantee that he will receive close to double-digit targets for the sixth straight week. Cleveland is tied for the third-best coverage grade as a unit in the NFL and held Andrews under this number when these two teams met two weeks ago. Given the extenuating circumstances that Baltimore faces in this matchup, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Browns shut down the Ravens' entire offense on Sunday. Andrews finishing under 4.5 receptions at a plus price looks like one of the best ways for that narrative to play out.