Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
Week 12 was as close to breakeven as they come, as this article's plays finished 2-2. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, we are now 20-25 for -5.42 units in 2021 — which gives this article a 112-93 record across the two seasons for +11.68 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s heat up in the second half of the NFL regular season and find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 13 main slate of NFL action.
TE TYLER HIGBEE, LOS ANGELES RAMS: UNDER 3.5 RECEPTIONS (+120)
The third-worst team in the NFL comes to Los Angeles at the perfect time, as the Rams are in the midst of a three-game tailspin. If there was ever a get-right spot, it’s Sunday in Los Angeles, as the Rams are almost two-touchdown favorites over the Jacksonville Jaguars.
If the spread market proves correct, then the Rams should be playing their backups by the fourth quarter. Their 64% pass rate should also take a hit, so expect their pass-catchers to see limited opportunities on Sunday. One of the best ways to target this is by betting the under on Higbee’s 3.5 reception prop at a +120 price.
Higbee never leaves the field for the Rams’ offense, as he is the only tight end in the league to play over 90% of offensive snaps this season. The targets haven’t come as smoothly as the snaps, as Higbee sits fourth on the Rams in team target share. He has gone over his reception prop in six of 11 games this season but has finished short in his past two. With the Rams’ offense looking to replicate its early-season success, expect Higbee to take a backseat in this get-right game.