Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
As such, below is the only betting guide needed to unearth tons of expected value for each Sunday night contest throughout the 2021 NFL regular season.
We begin with a Week 1 contest between the Chicago Bears and the Los Angeles Rams.
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GAME LINES
Don’t get it twisted — this game is a mismatch in the Rams’ favor.
The spread is currently set at Rams -7.5 but after diving into the numbers behind a few of the key matchups, including the Rams defensive line versus the Bears’ offensive line and the Bears cornerbacks versus the Rams WRs, it’s clear that the Rams have the potential to turn this game into a blowout.
Andy Dalton finished with a 53.2 passing grade under pressure in 2020 — 13th among all quarterbacks with at least 100 snaps under pressure — meaning Dalton is roughly average under duress. That’s not a good thing, especially given that Aaron Donald‘s elite pass-rush ability will force Dalton to escape and make plays outside the pocket, which is the type of situation where Dalton posted a 36.8 passing grade in 2020 — 37th among all QBs (min. 10 snaps). Major yikes.
Speaking of Donald — the undisputed best non-QB in the NFL who is coming off an NFL-best 94.5 defensive grade season in 2020 — well, the Bears will not have an answer for him. Matt Nagy’s interior offensive line — Cody Whitehair, Sam Mustipher and James Daniels — recorded 76.3, 58.9 and 65.8 offensive grades in 2020, respectively. However, that doesn’t represent the real worry if you’re Dalton, as none of those three boasted a pass-blocking grade higher than 55.2, meaning Donald should have a field day as a pass rusher.
On the other side of the ball, this will be everyone’s first glimpse of Sean McVay and new quarterback Matthew Stafford, and the former Detroit Lion should have a field day with this Bears’ secondary.
Like any rookie corner, Jaylon Johnson was very hit or miss as a rookie in 2020, allowing over 14 yards per reception and ending the year with a 54.9 overall grade. The Bears’ other projected outside starter, Kindle Vildor, recorded a poor 49.8 coverage grade as a rookie last year.
PFF Greenline gives the over a 53.9% chance to cover and given the explosiveness of the Rams’ offense and the high turnover potential from their defense, over 46.5 is a good value bet.
PICK: Rams -7.5 and over 46.5
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