Using the data from thousands of 2020 NFL season simulations, we can look at each team's playoff leverage ahead of their Week 3 games.
In the charts below, the number to the left of a team is their chances of making the playoffs with a Week 3 loss, the number to the right is their chances of making the playoffs with a Week 3 win. The difference between the two numbers can be thought of as their “leverage.” In other words, how much is at stake for them in Week 3.
For example, the San Francisco 49ers have a leverage of 20%, as they make the playoffs 42% of the time with a loss and 62% of the time with a win.
Look-ahead lines — the lines for the upcoming week's games that sportsbooks were offering before the previous week's games — give us a good benchmark to see how much movement is based on prior team ratings versus how much was a reaction to Week 2.
Another important note, of course, is that Week 2 was also one of the worst weeks for injuries in NFL history, so we must also take into account the impact of those injuries, as that is certainly going to be captured in the market lines.