College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 4 Bets — spread, total & moneyline | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 4 Bets — spread, total & moneyline

Boise, Idaho, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Hank Bachmeier (19) is sacked by Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive tackle Jayden Jernigan (42) during the second half at Albertsons Stadium. Oklahoma State won 21-20. Mandatory Credit: Brian Losness-USA TODAY Sports

Another six ranked teams found themselves on the wrong side of the final result in Week 3 of the 2021 college football season, with each week providing learning lessons as programs try to establish their identities and prepare for the rest of the year.

After three weeks, my picks stand at 11-14 for -3.02 units. Will this be the week to get back on track? Here are more spread, total, and moneyline picks for Week 4. All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Boise State vs. Utah State (+9)

The Broncos are three games into the Andy Avalos era, and the offense is concerningly underwhelming — it might as well be a one-dimensional passing team with the lack of a rushing threat.

Boise State currently ranks in the bottom six in the FBS in rushing yards (262) and rushing yards before contact (48). And because defenses do not have to worry about stopping the run, quarterback Hank Bachmeier is being forced to come up with big plays in the passing game. The only problem is that the offensive line has graded out horribly (38.5) as a unit, which has led to Bachmeier being sacked six times so far. Through three weeks of the college football season, Bachmeier & Co. rank 51st among FBS offenses in EPA per pass play and 123rd in EPA per rush.

Blake Anderson brought the two-quarterback system to Utah State and uses both Logan Bonner and Andrew Peasley. Bonner has put up an 83.3 passing grade so far and is the superior passer, but Peasley is the Aggies’ second-leading rusher.  

All eyes should be on college football's leading receiver — Utah State’s Deven Thompkins, who has 454 yards and three touchdowns on the year. Thompkins has lined up in the slot on 92.4% of his snaps this year.

TEAM COMPARISON
Metrics Boise State Utah State
Average offensive snaps 67 86
% run plays 43% 46%
% pass plays 57% 54%
EPA per run -0.30 0.15
EPA per pass 0.14 0.34

PFF Greenline sees value in the Aggies to cover. With the exception of a UTEP game, the Boise State offense has been lackluster. Utah State’s defense has question marks of its own, but the offense will be able to move the ball.

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