College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 13 Bets — spread, total & moneyline | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 13 Bets — spread, total & moneyline

Syracuse, NY, USA; Liberty Flames quarterback Malik Willis (7) scores on a touchdown run in the first half during a game against Syracuse on Saturday, Oct. 17, 2020, at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, N.Y. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Nett/Pool Photo-USA TODAY Sports

Week 13 of the college football season is meaningful for many reasons. Not only does it provide one last chance for programs to secure bowl eligibility and a spot in a conference championship, but it also gives teams a chance to earn bragging rights over their biggest foes.

Week 13 is Rivalry Week — and there is no better time in college football.

My Week 12 picks went 3-2, bringing my year-to-date record to 40-37 for +5.85 units. Here are more spread, total, and moneyline picks for Week 13. All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Army (ML +150) vs. Liberty

Tale of the tape

The 7-3 Army Black Knights will look to extend their three-game winning streak against the 7-4 Liberty Flames, who have lost back-to-back games against Mississippi and Louisiana.

The Black Knights have run the ball on 85.8% of their snaps through Week 12, the highest rate in the FBS. They enter this contest with the 10th-best team run-blocking grade in the nation at 85.4, while their 2.8 yards before contact per rush attempt (2.8) leads the pack.

The Flames have had mixed results against the run this year. In all, they've allowed 4.4 yards per attempt to opposing rushing attacks, a top-30 figure among FBS defenses. However, they've recorded a sub-65.0 team run-defense grade in each of their last two games and rank 91st among FBS programs in expected points added (EPA) allowed per rush over that span.

Team Comparison Army Liberty
Average offensive snaps 71.0 72.7
% run plays 86% 45%
% pass plays 14% 55%
EPA per run 0.14 0.05
EPA per pass 0.23 0.13
Matchup to Watch: Army EDGE ANDRE CARTER II vs. Liberty LT TRISTAN SCHULTZ

Carter leads his team in sacks (14), hits (8) and quarterback hurries (20) and enters this contest with a 93.4 pass-rush grade that ranks first among the 214 FBS edge defenders who have rushed the passer at least 200 times.

Carter has an opportune matchup to tally up those numbers against an offensive line that ranks 80th in the FBS in pressure rate on the season at 22.9%.

Schultz has particularly struggled this year, earning just a 59.4 pass-blocking grade in his 11 games. He has allowed four sacks, one hit and 15 hurries across 323 pass-blocking snaps and has been responsible for 11 pressures over his last two games. The Liberty left tackle even earned a 0.0 pass-blocking grade for his disastrous performance against Ole Miss in Week 10.

X-Factor: Army safety CEDRICK CUNNINGHAM JR.

While Andre Carter II is the highest-graded Army defender, Cunningham is a close second at 77.0. He does everything well for the Black Knights defense, ranking top-10 in the conference in run-defense grade (66.2), tackling grade (85.7), pass-rush grade (77.4) and coverage grade (79.7). His 18 stops are tied for first among FBS Independent safeties, and he also has an interception and two pass breakups.

Liberty QB Malik Willis can be prone to turning the ball over. And while he will be worried about Carter, Cunningham will be all over the field.

This Liberty team is coming off two physical games against Mississippi and Louisiana, and having to defend a triple-option rushing attack they are not used to will make it a third. The Army rushing attack should find success on the ground and should win this game outright. PFF Greenline implies a moneyline value of just under 2%.

PFF Greenline uses exclusive game and player data to make projections on NCAA game spreads, moneyline, and over/under.

Texas State vs. Arkansas State (under 62.5)

Tale of the tape

What happens when two underwhelming offenses line up against two bottom-tier defenses? Hopefully, the under hits.

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