My picks went 2-1 last week. Patrick Mahomes threw for three touchdowns on his first three drives, allowing those who bet over 2.5 touchdowns to relax for the rest of the game. Elijah Mitchell caught an 18-yard pass on the San Francisco 49ers' fifth offensive play, which allowed those who bet over 11.5 receiving yards to celebrate early on. He finished the game with 50 receiving yards.
Unfortunately, Ja’Marr Chase failed to accumulate more than 85.5 receiving yards, ruining what was almost a perfect week. Too many of the Cincinnati Bengals' drives either ended early or started in favorable field position, which prevented the offense from accumulating huge yard totals. Tee Higgins was the Bengals receiver who finished with over 100 yards. Chase did catch six passes, but it was only for 54 yards.
This article's record now stands at 32-24 on the season.
Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make during the Super Bowl.
Click here for more PFF tools:
WR Odell Beckham Jr., Los Angeles Rams: Over 5.5 receptions (+118)
Beckham’s involvement in the Rams' offense has increased in recent weeks, as he caught six passes for 69 yards in the win over the Buccaneers and nine catches for 113 yards last week against the 49ers. Last week, he recorded his first 100-yard receiving game since 2019.
Part of Beckham's increased role has been due to other Rams skill players sustaining injuries. Cam Akers, Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee all missed at least some time against San Francisco and are all showing up on the injury report with limited-to-no practice. This is a solid bet just because Beckham is one of Los Angeles' two healthy starting skill players.
The former Cleveland Brown also has a great matchup against the Bengals, regardless of the injuries. He’s maintained an 18.7% threat rate with Los Angeles, and it jumps up to 23.0% as long as Matthew Stafford isn’t under pressure.
Cincinnati's pass rush was below-average this season, as Larry Ogunjobi — who is now on injured reserve — was its only interior rusher with over 40 pressures this season. Two of Cincinnati's top three outside rushers weren’t practicing at the start of the week and won’t be at 100% by game time. This should give Stafford plenty of time to throw and Beckham enough time to get open.
Similarly, Beckham sees a higher threat rate against man defense. His threat rate is 30.2% against man coverage compared to 16.3% against zone coverage. Cincinnati has run more man coverage than either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or San Francisco 49ers in the playoffs. In addition, the Bengals have slightly more man coverage in the playoffs compared to the regular season.
Beckham with the Rams by Situation
|Situation||PFF Grade||Routes||Threat Rate||YPRR|
|Man + No Pressure||89.8||46||37.0%||2.78|
RB Samaje Perine, Cincinnati Bengals: Over 20.5 rushing/receiving yards (-120)
Perine’s situation is similar to Beckham's in that his team has slightly changed how he’s used in the playoffs, and this is a particularly good matchup for him.