Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. And as the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities. Nowhere is that showcased better than during the NFL playoffs.
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QB Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers over 2.5 passing TDs (+149)
Brady has been sensational in his age-44 season, as he finished his 22nd year in the league ranked second in both offensive and passing grade en route to another Pro Bowl berth and All-Pro appearance.
The Rams secondary is obviously headlined by future Hall-of-Famer Jalen Ramsey, however, look for Brady and Bruce Arians to attack the other defensive backs who are significantly worse. Starting safeties Taylor Rapp (58.8 coverage grade) and Nick Scott (48.3) both leave plenty to be desired, as does cornerback Darious Williams (63.5), who took a step back this season after a breakout 2020 campaign.
PFF’s Player Props Tool gives Brady a 55.5% chance to throw for three or more touchdowns against the Rams — a feat that he’s successfully accomplished eight different times this season.
TE Rob Gronkowski, Tampa Bay Buccaneers under 63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Buccaneers offense put forth a smashing opening round playoff performance, as it looked undeterred despite the rash of injuries at wide receiver. The problem was a pileup of injuries along the offensive line, but both Ryan Jensen and Tristan Wirfs practiced this week. The wild-card game was the third straight week that Gronkowski finished under his receiving yardage prop since returning from injury in Week 11. The problem is his prop number continues to increase, as it currently sits at the second-highest number of his 2021 season. His usage increased without Antonio Brown or Chris Godwin in the lineup, but Gronkowski has still posted under a 20% team target share over the past three games in addition to a dramatic dropoff in his average depth of target (aDot).