It was a chalky start to the 2021 NFL Draft, with a couple of quarterbacks falling but most things wrapping up close to market expectation. Sportsbooks have started to post Day 2 prop bets, which should continue to trickle in throughout the day.
Let's dive in.
QB DAVIS MILLS DRAFT POSITION
Davis Mills has had quite a bit of discrepancy in his draft position number. FanDuel had his number at 68.5 before the first round, with DraftKings even lower, at 64.5. FanDuel has dropped eight spots after the first round and looks to be offering some value on 60.5.
We didn’t see the quick run on quarterbacks as expected, but the top five still went in the first half of Round 1. Patience paid off for both the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots, which could signal teams taking a conservative approach to this year’s quarterback class.
Mills’ standing in the draft community appears to be all over the map, as he is just the 81st-ranked prospect on PFF’s Big Board. He is sandwiched between Kyle Trask and Kellen Mond in our rankings and fits with the idea that he is a viable candidate for only a few teams.
It’s possible that one particular team is in love with Mills, which is what it would take for him to go under this 60.5 number. Given my preference for Trask and Mond, I think Mills is the most likely quarterback to fall at the lowest number of the three candidates.
Mills simply doesn’t have enough high-end snaps to justify a selection over better prospects, even if someone falls in love with his NFL arm strength. Teams continue to approach the quarterback position from a smart position, so even if one covets Mills, there is no reason they would make an early overstep to acquire him. Take the over 60.5 as a draft-day gift — this number should easily be 10 spots higher.
QB KELLEN MOND DRAFT POSITION
This is a pivot off Davis Mills’ over if we do end up seeing a run on quarterbacks in the second or third rounds. Mond is the opposite of Mills as a prospect, with loads of tape showing a steady, if unspectacular, quarterback prospect. The comparison to Dak Prescott does fit, as the only real knock on Mond is that he doesn’t make use of the deep passing game enough. Still, he comes from an NFL- ready offensive scheme.
His pre-first-round draft position number was 80.5 on DraftKings and 75.5 on FanDuel. He has dropped another place to 74.5 as we head into the second round, but his number hasn’t gained nearly as much ground as the other two quarterbacks projected around him.