Two young quarterbacks on the brink of stardom meet this Sunday at FedEx Field as the Redskins take on the Vikings. Robert Griffin III may have seen the most attention of any young quarterback, and deservedly so, but it is second-year QB Christian Ponder who has led his team to a 4-1 record and a tie for first in the NFC North. Griffin has done everything that was expected of him and more, although his team has seen multiple games slip through their hands as they sit at 2-3. No game was more heartbreaking then last week’s defeat at the hands of the Falcons, where Griffin was knocked out of the game in the third quarter with a 10-7 lead only to see Atlanta storm back with 17 points in the fourth. The Redskins have played every game close this year as all of them have been decided by eight points or less.
Minnesota, on the other hand, looks to keep their defensive hot-streak flowing. The Vikings have allowed only 27 points in the past three games, and that against three teams with winning records in 2011. Much of Minnesota’s improvement can be attributed to the play of Harrison Smith who is PFF’s highest-graded safety in coverage. Smith’s presence has helped limit opposing quarterbacks to only 6.1 yards per attempt, which is 2 yards lower than Minnesota’s 2011 average.
Tyler Polumbus vs. Brian Robison
This is the most lopsided positional matchup in the game and one that will greatly impact the Redskins' offensive efficiency. The Redskins are the fourth-ranked rushing offense and eighth-ranked scoring offense, but it hasn’t been because of right tackle Tyler Polumbus. He has a league-low grade of -12.0 in run blocking and Alfred Morris has had little success running behind him. Morris is averaging 3.70 yards per carry off tackle to the right, whereas he is averaging 6.15 yards per carry off tackle to the left.
The bad news for Polumbus and Morris is they are facing one of the better run stuffers in the league this year. Robison ranks 11th among 4-3 ends in Run Stop Percentage helping the Vikings hold their foes to just 78 yards per game rushing. Washington has relied on its running game to take pressure off their rookie quarterback, so winning this matchup is key. Look for Washington to keep their runs to the middle and left side to try and avoid this mismatch. Especially if they want to avoid falling to 4-15 at home in the Mike Shanahan era.
Clog the Middle
Adrian Peterson has had a lot of success running the ball up the middle this year. Overall, 326 of his 420 yards have come between the tackles and he is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on those runs. If you want to control Peterson, you must control the line of scrimmage in the middle of the line. In Peterson’s worst game this year the 49ers did just that. The three down-lineman for San Francisco combined for a +5.3 run defense grade and Peterson averaged only 3.4 yards per carry.
The Redskins may not have the same talent on their line as the 49ers, but that doesn’t mean they can’t slow down the Vikings' run game. Barry Cofield, Jarvis Jenkins, and Stephen Bowen are the starting down-lineman for the Redskins, and their play will be crucial in the outcome of the game. Last year when these two teams met, Cofield and Bowen were overmatched as the Vikings ran for 241 yards on 38 carries, even with the loss of Peterson. The addition of Jenkins though, and his +5.0 run defense grade, should help the Redskins this Sunday. Washington has the personnel to stop Peterson, but it will be difficult as he will be running as hard as ever against the team that tore his ACL last season.
Take What the Defense Gives You
Both of the quarterbacks in this game have had exceptional starts to their seasons. Ponder and Griffin are both in the Top 10 of PFF's Accuracy Percentage, ranking ninth and first respectively. They have been able to be so accurate because up until this point they have taken what the defense has given them and not tried to win games all by themselves. What I mean by that is, neither quarterback has resorted to trying to fit balls into tight windows or heaved the ball deep into double coverage. Those types of problems usually plague young quarterbacks, but both have found a way not to make those mistakes as they have thrown three interceptions combined.
When comparing the quarterbacks throws by direction, they appear eerily similar. Both receive their highest grades in the 10-20 yard range and neither goes deep very often. In fact, Griffin’s eight attempts over 20 yards and Ponder’s nine attempts put them at 32nd and 31st respectively among starting quarterbacks. When they did go deep, they haven’t had a whole lot of success. Ponder has completed only two passes over 20 yards for a total of 41 yards. Griffin has completed 3 for 123 yards. That is why in this game it is important that each quarterback sticks to what has been working for them, even if they fall behind.
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