This NFC-AFC showdown finds the undefeated Atlanta Falcons defending their home turf against the Oakland Raiders, owners of an underwhelming 1-3 record. The last time these two teams met was in 2008 when now-potential MVP candidate Matt Ryan was a rookie. The result was a 24-0 blowout in Oakland, but that was four years ago with the infamous JaMarcus Russell at the helm of the silver and black.
This is the last AFC West team the Falcons will play this season, and they have victories over the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs safely in the bag. It hasn’t been completely plain sailing recently though, as they looked more than mortal against division rivals the Carolina Panthers and then the Washington Redskins, before Robert Griffin III went down.
Meanwhile, the Raiders have been competitive in only two games — one being a close 34-31 victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers — while being blown out by the division rival Broncos and the Miami Dolphins, a team many predicted would be one of the worst squads in the league this year. Coming off a bye week after their embarrassing six-point performance in Denver, the Raiders have to be highly motivated to compete here. Can the silver and black pull off the upset? Here are some matchups that will help determine that answer.
Darren McFadden vs. Falcons Run Defense
This will be one of the most important factors in this game – the Raiders want to run the ball with their workhorse Darren McFadden, while Mike Nolan’s defense’s biggest weakness has been against the run. McFadden has struggled under the zone blocking scheme that came with the new Raider regime, averaging 3.5 yards per carry and gaining 201 yards on 57 carries, with 64 of those yards coming on his only touchdown run. Not helping is the fact that the former fourth-overall draft pick has only forced five missed tackles on the ground so far. Some of that blame can be put on the offensive line — only backup right tackle Willie Smith and franchise left tackle Jared Veldeer have graded positive in this area.
Through the first five games, the Falcons have been generous against opposing runners, allowing all of their opponents to gain over 100 yards. This flaw starts up front with starting linemen Jonathan Babineaux and Peria Jerry losing their battles in the trenches to the tune of a combined -9.6 grade and only six stops in run defense. Babineaux's desire to get upfield has caused him some errors, but it’s worth noting he made a game-changing play last week on a toss-run to the opposite side when he hustled downfield to tackle Alfred Morris, preventing a TD (RG3 would get knocked out of the game three plays later). The linebackers have been at least a mixed bag with Akeem Dent and Sean Witherspoon (who is having a terrific season otherwise) struggling, while Stephen Nicholas has excelled in this area. Veteran pass rusher John Abraham has also been a liability — in the first half in Washington he was put on the ground on runs toward his side three times, including twice by Tyler Polumbus (13:52 and 4:14 in the second quarter), who is our worst graded run blocking tackle. Not surprisingly, Abraham was rarely seen on early downs in the second half of that game. The Raider’s best hope to get a ‘W' is to keep Ryan off the field as much as possible, but can they take advantage of this matchup to do so?
Tony Gonzalez vs. Raiders Linebackers and Safeties
On paper, the Falcons' receivers against the Raiders' secondary is a glaring mismatch, but I’m going to focus specifically on Tony Gonzalez, who has truly earned the clichéd ‘ageless' label. The veteran Pro Bowl tight end currently leads all receivers in receptions (39, one more than Wes Welker and Percy Harvin) and all tight ends in forced missed tackles (10) — in fact, only Harvin has broken or dodged more tackle attempts (14). He presents a problem wherever he is lined up and must always be accounted for, especially in the red zone (four TD catches, tied for first most among tight ends with three others).
One man who may be able to contain the monster that is Gonzalez, is safety Tyvon Branch. Branch has caught our eye here at PFF, especially when he was able to shut down Rob Gronkowski last year. On tight ends so far this season, Branch has not been quite the force he was in that 2011 New England game, but he hasn’t been abused, either. On his watch, Antonio Gates caught one of three passes for 17 yards, Joel Dressen caught one pass but was quickly blown up for a 5-yard loss, Jacob Tamme caught all three passes for 28 yards, and Heath Miller beat him for A 4-yard TD pass with help from a play-fake. The Raiders should hope to get Branch on Gonzalez as much as possible, but at least some of the responsibility will inevitably fall on the linebackers.
Aside from Branch’s coverage, there have only been four instances where a tight end has been thrown at while not being covered by a linebacker or another safety, leaving Phillip Wheeler and Rolando McClain as the usual targets. Wheeler has been targeted while covering tight ends nine times, resulting in six completions including touchdowns to Miller and Dressen. McClain has been targeted only six times, but surrendered four of those passes including a touchdown to Anthony Fasano. The Raiders' defense will have enough problems with Julio Jones and Roddy White but cannot afford to let Gonzalez roam free over the middle, or anywhere else.
Will the Raiders' Pass Rush Show Up?
The Raiders' solid pass rush from last season has evaporated this year, with the unit’s best overall grade in this area being a -4.2 effort in Miami. Much of the blame falls on the defensive line, with only backup Desmond Bryant grading positively. Both Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, who were tremendous at generating pressure in 2011, have regressed, compiling an alarming one sack and three hurries in 204 snaps rushing the passer between them. The linebackers have also been unable to bother opposing signal-callers, with Wheeler (six knockdowns and two hurries on 37 blitzes) being the exception.
Ryan’s PFF passer grade drops from 16.0 to 7.0 when under pressure. While that is a significant drop off, it’s still better than some passers under no pressure, and proves the fifth-year QB can still operate at a high level when under fire. The Raiders cannot let that stat deter them though, and, oddly enough, playing in the Georgia Dome may help their cause, as Atlanta's line as a whole struggled in pass protection only in their two home games so far. Right tackle Tyson Clabo has been the biggest liability on their home turf, surrendering four sacks, two hits, and six hurries in those two contests, especially against the Carolina Panthers who have otherwise been unable to rattle opposing signal-callers. That Clabo was able to cool down Redskins’ stud OLB Ryan Kerrigan’s great start (no pressures to the sophomore on his watch) is a good sign. Overall, center Todd McClure has also ended up on the wrong side of our grading scale in this area, especially last week when he surrendered a sack, a hit and two hurries. Coming off a bye, and that terrible performance in Denver, can the Raiders step up their game and put Ryan on the ground? They have to if they plan on winning this game.
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