The Tennessee Titans begin their season with the perfect test of their growth in Year 2 of the Mike Munchak era: hosting the AFC Champion New England Patriots. The Titans have added an influx of young players to both sides of the ball over the past two years, while the Patriots are themselves trying to avoid the Super Bowl runner-up hangover by adding youth to their defense.
The obvious difference between both teams lies at quarterback. The Patriots are led by former league MVP Tom Brady, while the Titans have turned the reins over to second-year QB Jake Locker. Though Locker’s athleticism allows him to make plays out of the pocket, Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick usually puts extra emphasis on keeping mobile quarterbacks contained. Belichick is likely to employ a conservative, slow-playing pass rush, so it will be up to Locker to complete passes within the confines of the offense. This game is not only a measuring stick for the Titans as a whole, but it will give us a good indication of how far Locker has developed as he enters Year 2.
Let’s take a look at some of the other key matchups for this week.
Titans Defensive Line vs. Patriots Offensive Line
It’s a battle of two units which appeared to be trending in opposite directions during the preseason. Expectations are high in Tennessee with the arrival of free agent Kamerion Wimbley, who they hope will provide the edge pass rushing that was lacking last season. His Pass Rush Productivity of 10.6 would have ranked among the league’s best 4-3 defensive ends (Wimbley qualified as a 4-3 OLB). Last year’s real gem of the defensive line was fifth-round rookie DT Karl Klug (+7.5 Pass Rush) who became one of the league’s most underrated interior pass rushers. If former first-round DE Derrick Morgan starts to figure it out, the Titans have a chance to turn one of last year’s weaknesses into a surprising strength this season.
On the other side, the Patriots are dealing with some offensive line shuffling, and the results did not look promising in the preseason. Left tackle Matt Light has moved from quarterback Tom Brady’s blindside protector to NFL analyst and second-year OT Nate Solder moves in as the starter. Though a first-round pick in 2011, Solder surprised many by his solid play during his rookie season as he shuffled between right tackle and extra tight end in big formations. He has, however, struggled at times during the preseason and his matchups with the formidable Wimbley will be one to keep an eye on.
The other important missing piece in New England is at right guard where last year’s starter Brian Waters is nowhere to be found. Many thought he would be a late training camp addition to the roster, but he remains out of the mix. His replacement, Dan Connolly, has been solid as a versatile interior lineman, but he’s not expected to live up to Waters’ Pro Bowl season of 2011. Losing two key pieces against an up-and-coming Titans pass rush should make for a challenge for the Patriots
Chris Johnson vs. Patriots Front Seven
The NFL continues to evolve into a pass-first league, but Bill Belichick and the Patriots continue to add more run stoppers to their defense. It all starts up front with DT Vince Wilfork who, for the first time in his career, rarely came off the field in 2011. He pairs with NT Kyle Love to form a defensive interior that is difficult to move. Behind them, linebacker Jerod Mayo is at his best when he has a clear path to run to the football, and fellow LB Brandon Spikes usually allows that to happen by attacking offensive linemen with authority. The Patriots added another linebacker to the mix in first-round rookie Don’ta Hightower who is cut from a similar mold as Mayo and Spikes, and he steps into the starting spot on the strong side in the Patriots' 4-3 front.
In Tennessee, they would like nothing more than to get running back Chris Johnson back to his 2009 form, when he ran for over 2,000 yards, but it’s been an alarming decline the past two seasons. When discussing Johnson, we most cite his breakaway speed, but the hidden yards that got him over 2,000 were ones that came after contact. Johnson has not been the same physical runner, and his Elusive Rating has seen a steady decline from 40.3 in 2009 to 38.5 in 2010 before bottoming out last year at 25.1.
In order to get back into the discussion of being one of the best running backs in the league, Johnson must run with more physicality, though this may not be the week it comes to fruition against a tough Patriots front seven.
Replacing Cortland Finnegan
Continuing with the ‘passing league' theme, use of nickel packages are at an all-time high around the league, particularly for teams that play the Patriots. Tight end Aaron Hernandez is a glorified wide receiver and his presence has generally drawn an extra defensive back rather than the linebacker that most teams matchup with a traditional tight end. New England saw base defenses on only 18% of their snaps last season, so matching up with five or more DBs is certainly the norm, and a strong slot cornerback is vital against the Patriots' offense.
Unfortunately for the Titans, they lost one of the league’s best slot cornerbacks, Cortland Finnegan, to the St. Louis Rams in free agency. His presence will be missed, both in coverage and as a tough run defender. To replace Finnegan, expect the Titans to move CB Alterraun Verner into the slot, where he played as a rookie in 2010. With Finnegan holding down the role last year, Verner spent the majority of his time playing on the outside. During Verner’s time in the slot in 2010, he was worst among qualifiers with 5.8 Cover Snaps/Reception, though he did a good job of limiting yards after the catch, as his +6.1 coverage grade suggests. The ability to limit YAC will be put to the test this week, as the Patriots will rely heavily on both Hernandez and WR Wes Welker to make plays out of the slot.
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