What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? That age-old football analogy perfectly describes what we’ll see when the New England Patriots fly to the Pacific Northwest to meet the Seattle Seahawks.
New England’s offense, always near the top of the league, has been absolutely unrelenting of late. They’ve compiled over 1,000 yards and 80 points in their last two games. They lead the NFL with 439.4 yards per game and 33.0 points per game. The Patriots are often identified as a passing team, but they’ve had incredible balance this season. They ran for more than 240 yards in each of the last two games, and are the only team that ranks in the Top 5 of the league in both rush yards per game and pass yards per game.
When Tom Brady makes his first trip to CenturyLink Field, he’ll face a Seattle defense that is arguably the best in the NFL right now. The Seahawks allow a league-low 258.6 yards per game and only the San Francisco 49ers surrender fewer than Seattle’s 14.0 points per contest. Last week, Pete Carroll’s young squad walked into Bank of America Stadium and battered the Carolina Panthers into a measly 190-yard effort. The Seahawks coach would love nothing better than to replicate that effort against his old employer.
Can the upstart Seattle defense grind the New England offense to a halt? Or will the Patriot juggernaut keep on rolling? The answer could lie in the outcome of one of these three matchups.
Patriots No-Huddle Run Game vs. Sehawks Defensive Line
What makes this year’s Patriots offense different from the formidable Bill Belichick squads of recent years is their rediscovered dominance in the running game. Stevan Ridley’s +5.4 run grade is tied for second among all backs, and the sophomore leads the league with nine rushes of over 15 yards. New England’s offensive line, a big question mark coming into the season, has done well in the ground game and center Ryan Wendell leads the way with a +5.2 run block grade. Against the Denver Broncos last week, the Patriots showed that their success comes from not only how they run the ball, but when they run it. With 9:05 left in the third quarter, Brady faced 3rd-and-17 near midfield. With only five Broncos in the box, he handed the ball to Danny Woodhead. Behind a convoy of unimpeded blockers, Woodhead zipped through the Denver secondary for a first down. Using a quick-paced, no-huddle offense, the Patriots took an absurd 97 offensive snaps last week, often trapping the Denver defense with the wrong personnel on the field. As Brady said after the game, “We're getting a lot of nickel defense. So when they put little guys out there, we [have] to take advantage of it.”
With one of the more physical defenses in the league, Seattle doesn’t have a lot of little guys. They allow just 66.6 rushing yards per game, and their defense starts with a stout front line. Brandon Mebane is a mountain in the middle, with a +12.5 run grade and 13.9 Run Stop Percentage that leads all NFL defensive tackles. In fact, the only members of Seattle’s front seven that grade negatively against the run are defensive end Chris Clemons and pass-rush specialists Jason Jones and Bruce Irvin. This is the exact point when New England’s no-huddle comes in. I highlighted Jones and Irvin this week for their ability to disrupt the Panthers’ passing game, but they do struggle against the run. If the Patriots’ quick snaps can keep these pass-rushers on the field, then Seattle’s strength on the line could become a disadvantage for them.
Marshawn Lynch vs. Patriots Linebackers
To slow down the Patriot offense, the Seahawks would love to hold onto the ball for as long as possible. Marshawn Lynch is showing us that his renaissance 2011 season was no fluke. His 508 rushing yards ranks third among all RBs, and he has tallied at least 85 yards in 13 of his last 14 games. With his league-leading 25 missed tackles and stellar 63.1 Elusive Rating, he’s earned his ‘Beast Mode' moniker. Last week against the Panthers, with 2:58 left and Seattle protecting a six-point lead, Lynch broke through a tackle for 11 yards on 3rd-and-7. The first down run crippled any hopes of a Carolina comeback.
The Patriots’ sure-tackling has helped them hold opponents to a mere 3.4 yards per carry this season, fifth-best in the league. Jerod Mayo leads all linebackers with 42 solo tackles and a 50.0 Combined Tackle Efficiency. Dont’a Hightower (9.5 Run Stop Percentage) and Brandon Spikes (+6.0 run grade) have also been strong against the run. They’ll meet few bigger challenges this season than Lynch. If they don’t continue their sure-handed tackling, it could derail the Patriots on both sides of the ball.
Wes Welker vs. Marcus Trufant
Wes Welker caused a mini-firestorm in New England this week when he made a joke about Belichick trying to phase him out of the game plan earlier this season (and you wonder why athletes avoid saying anything interesting to the media). While we can’t speculate on locker room chemistry or ‘truth in jest', the game tape shows Welker has undeniably regained his place as the focal point of the Patriot passing game. His performance has improved each week, from a -1.7 grade in Week 1 to a +4.2 against the Broncos. He caught 13 of the 14 passes thrown his way against Denver, and has 30 receptions on 34 targets the past three weeks combined. He leads the league, not only with 38 receptions, but also with 423 yards from the slot.
The man who will likely match up with Welker most often is former franchise cornerback Marcus Trufant. Trufant, once the star of Seattle’s defense, has now ceded his starting spot to sophomore standouts Brandon Browner (+7.8) and Richard Sherman (+6.4). That leaves the veteran CB manning the slot, where he’s done an excellent job this season. Trufant has allowed a reception only once every 16.8 snaps from that position, the second-best mark in the NFL. However, he has yet to face a wide receiver with Welker’s talent and technique. With both these veterans fighting to keep a grip on their once-secure roles, this matchup on Sunday should be a fun one to watch.
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