This week, the New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams have traveled across the pond for the sixth edition of the NFL International Series in London. I attended the first game back in 2007, when the Miami Dolphins played “host” to the New York Giants, and it was one of the most enjoyable sporting experiences of my life. The game included a boisterous crowd, a halftime streaker, a 26-foot-tall animatronic Jason Taylor, and a sloppy 13-10 Giants victory played on a soccer pitch that clearly wasn’t used to bearing the weight of 350-lb offensive linemen.
Thankfully, the quality of play in the London games have gotten better since then, with the San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints staging a 37-32 shootout the following season and the Chicago Bears surviving a Tampa Bay Buccaneers comeback last year. Given that 12 of the 14 games that the Patriots and Rams have played this season have been within seven points in the fourth quarter, this Sunday could give the London crowd its best game yet.
The Patriots' offense leads the NFL with 436.1 yards and 31 points per game, but sputtered against tough defenses in losses to the Cardinals and Seahawks. The Rams have already surpassed their win total from last year, but Jeff Fisher’s squad needs to keep pace in a surprisingly tough division. Will New England get its first win against the NFC West this season, or will Fisher beat Bill Belichick for the first time since 2002? Let’s look at three matchups that could decide the outcome.
Patriots Wide Receivers vs Rams Cornerbacks
Despite how typically efficient the Patriots' offense was last season, they lacked an outside threat that could open up the middle of the field. Brandon Lloyd was supposed to fill that void, but he has yet to make the impact that many expected. Lloyd’s 1.44 Yards per Route Run is 36th among wide receivers, and Tom Brady has just a 79.4 QB rating when throwing in his direction. Amongst receivers with over 10 deep ball targets, Lloyd’s 23.50 catch rate is last in the league. With Lloyd’s struggles, Brady has once again leaned heavily on his ever-reliable slot receiver, Wes Welker, who leads the NFL with 54 catches and 688 yards, and whose 2.57 YPRR is sixth-best in the league. After all that early-season chatter about being phased out of the Patriot offense, Welker is once again its focal point.
It could be a tale of two matchups this Sunday when the Rams deploy their cornerbacks against Lloyd and Welker. Cortland Finnegan’s immediate impact in St. Louis earned him recognition in last week’s Free Agent Dividends column, and his versatility will often see him lined up on Welker this Sunday. When Finnegan mans the slot, quarterbacks have just a 65.0 passer rating when throwing in his direction. On the other hand, Janoris Jenkins is suffering the types of growing pains you’d expect from a rookie. His 453 yards surrendered in coverage this season is the fourth-highest total in the league among cornerbacks. After a promising start to the season, he’s allowed 17 completions on 19 attempts for 205 yards and two touchdowns in the past two weeks. Given Jenkins’ recent difficulties, and nickel cornerback Bradley Fletcher’s solid 13.9 Coverage Snaps per Reception, we could see the rookie take a seat this week if he can’t handle Lloyd.
Sam Bradford vs Patriots Secondary
As our own Sam Monson noted in his review of last week’s Packers-Rams matchup, Sam Bradford has had a lot of off-target throws for a QB that was lauded for his accuracy coming out of college. His 69.8% Accuracy rate puts him at 24th-best in the league, squarely in the territory of Kevin Kolb and Ryan Fitzpatrick. His 81.95 PFF QB Rating is also below-average, and he’s been noticeably overwhelmed against tougher defenses. Fortunately for Bradford, his task this week is much more manageable.
The Patriots surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league last season, and that’s exactly where they rank this year. The good news is that Devin McCourty, after giving up 62 receptions for 1,000 yards in 2011, has allowed just 17 for 264 this season. The bad news is that Kyle Arrington is on pace to do even worse than McCourty did last year. A perfect passer rating in the NFL is 158.3, and quarterbacks have a 155.8 rating when throwing at Arrington. He’s surrendered 451 yards, fifth-most of any cornerback. Compounding the problem is the revolving door the safety spot opposite Patrick Chung, now manned by Tavon Wilson. Patriots fans know Wilson as the person in coverage on Sidney Rice’s game-winning touchdown two weeks ago. Bradford should be wary of a defense that leads the AFC in takeaways, but this is a secondary that the third-year QB could exploit.
Rams Left Tackle (TBD) vs Chandler Jones
I was sitting at a sports bar in Boston when Belichick traded up in the first round of this year’s draft to select Chandler Jones. The Patriots fans around me rejoiced, not because they had any certain affinity for the Syracuse defensive end, but because they’d been yearning for an impact pass-rusher since Richard Seymour was shipped off in 2009. Judging by Jones’ first seven games, they may finally have their man. Jones had four QB pressures and a big sack-fumble in Week 1 against the Titans, and he hasn’t slowed down since. He leads all rookies with five sacks and is our current leader for the Defensive Rookie of the Year Award. He even stands out among the veterans of the league, as his 28 QB pressures is tied for 12th-most among all defenders. The Patriots have succeeded in past seasons despite an often-nonexistant pass rush. In just a few games, Jones has helped turn a weakness into a strength.
And the Rams left tackle responsible for containing Jones this Sunday is… likely overmatched. Incumbent starter Roger Saffold has barely played this season due to a litany of injuries, and his 92.5 Pass Blocking Efficiency last season wasn’t exactly great to begin with. Backup Wayne Hunter has been even worse, as his 91.6 PBE is eighth-lowest among tackles this year (yes Jets fans, I see you nodding in the distance). Joe Barksdale played admirably in his first NFL start last week, but he still allowed three QB pressures on 37 pass blocking snaps. And those expecting newcomer Chris Williams to save the day should remember that he hasn’t started at tackle in 15 months and was just cut by the Bears last week. Whomever St. Louis trots out to protect Bradford’s blindside on Sunday, it will be a matchup that should have Jones licking his chops.
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