So far Las Vegas has touted this Sunday’s game between the Packers and the Jaguars at Lambeau Field as the most lopsided affair of the season with the Packers being favored by as many as 16 points. Ironically enough, though, the Jaguars' only win on the year came against the Colts, a team the Packers lost to. Unfortunately for the Jaguars, the transitive property doesn’t apply to sports and with Blaine Gabbert playing through injury and tailback Maurice Jones-Drew out, the large point spread for this game seems fair.
Jones-Drew isn’t the only key player that will be missing this game as the Packers will be without six starters themselves, but injuries haven’t kept them from rolling over the Texans and Rams in back-to-back weeks. The biggest reason has been the resurgence of Aaron Rodgers and his MVP form. He has posted consecutive 300-yard games with nine total touchdowns in the last two weeks and has risen back to the top of PFF’s QB Rating.
If the NFL has taught us anything this season, it’s that strange things can happen on any given Sunday. So will the Jags beat the Pack? I say only if they can be successful in these three things.
Attacking Woodson’s Replacement
The last time Charles Woodson broke his collarbone it almost cost the Packers Super Bowl XLV. This time around, General Manager Ted Thompson has made sure the secondary can still compete without him. Since that game the Packers have drafted two corners, a safety, and signed another safety in preparation for this very moment. Filling in for Woodson will likely be a combination of three of those players due to the veteran’s unique role this season. A mixture of Jerron McMillan, M.D. Jennings, and Davon House will be replacing Woodson and so far all have looked capable. They have only given up 111 yards combined, but that is in only 276 coverage snaps between them. Their combined yardage and coverage grade has actually been better than Woodson’s (221 yards in 259 coverage snaps and +1.1 coverage). It is Woodson’s leadership and knowledge of the defense, though, that the Packers will miss most as now four out of their five starters in the secondary have less than two years of starting experience.
If the Jaguars want to get their offense going, they must exploit this inexperience. Even though Gabbert has not developed in Year 2 like Jaguars fans would have hoped, one area he has been holding his own at is deep passing. Throwing the ball over 20 yards this season Gabbert has completed five of 15 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Compare that to his league-worst 5.73 yards per attempt and it looks quite favorable. The problem has been that Gabbert only throws downfield 9.5% of the time — one of the lowest percentages in the league — and he hasn’t shown the ability to be accurate with short passes (62% within 10 yards). Throwing the ball downfield more can only help this offense and his doing so will be something to watch for this week, especially with the inexperienced secondary he is going up against.
Creating Offense Without MJD
Losing Jones-Drew would be a tough blow to any offense, but when that offense was already last in the league in scoring, it makes any semblance of hope tough to come by. The biggest problem for the Jacksonville offense has been the ineptitude at the playmaking positions. The highest-graded players on the Jaguars' offense are their left tackle, tight end, and fullback… not typically the positions that dominate in a dangerous attack.
The Jaguars are without a receiver that has graded positively and they have dropped 16 balls on only 104 catchable passes, one of the highest drop rates in the league. If the Jacksonville offense is going to improve, they have to be able to get the ball into their hands of their best remaining playmakers and those players will have to step up their games. Cecil Shorts has shown ability this year (the 80-yard touchdown against the Colts) and Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson have shown it in the past. It all comes down to finding a way for Gabbert to get it to them. They are going up against a defense that is capable of giving up big yardage, as evidenced by the Packers' performance against the Saints and Colts. If the Jags want to run up the same kind of yardage, getting a big game out of one of their receivers is a must.
Derek Cox vs. Jordy Nelson and James Jones
It is too bad that cornerback Derek Cox has been plagued by injuries the last two seasons or we may very well be talking about him as one of the best corners in the league. In only six games last season Cox allowed a catch rate of 32.1% and only 105 yards which was good enough for him to be named a PFF Secret Superstar over the offseason. This season, after missing the first two games with a hamstring injury, he has picked up right where he left off, allowing a catch rate of 55.2%, 188 yards, and a quarterback rating against of only 57.8. This will be the best passing offense he’s seen all year, though, and will be a good opportunity for him to prove his ability.
Jordy Nelson and James Jones have lined up almost exclusively on the outside this season and will be the main matchups for Cox. Both receivers have thrived with more opportunities brought on by the injury to Greg Jennings. Over the past three weeks they have combined for a +10.9 grade and eight touchdowns. Green Bay has recently taken to task some pretty good corners in Jonathan Joseph, Brice McCain, Cortland Finnegan, and Janoris Jenkins. It will be interesting to see if they can do it again to Cox.
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