The NFC North right now is a division with no clear hierarchy. The class of the division last season are the two teams that sat at the bottom of it heading into this weekend’s slate of games, while the Bears and Vikings occupied the top two spots.
After a 10-6 season in 2011, the Lions have just two wins and now face a must-win game to get their season on track, and also prevent the 4-1 Bears from running away at the top of the division.
The Black and Blue division tends to throw up some enthralling games and this one has real meaning within the division, so let’s take a look at three areas crucial to the outcome.
Megatron and Peanut
The battle of the cooler nicknames definitely goes to the Detroit receiver, but Charles Tillman might have the advantage on the field. As odd as it sounds that any corner can have the advantage over a receiver with the ridiculous talents of Calvin Johnson, Tillman has historically stood up very well against the Lion, and in fact several big, dominant receivers down the years. Over the past five meetings between the two sides Johnson has been targeted 34 times with Tillman in coverage, coming up with just 17 catches (50%) for 225 yards. He hasn’t caught a touchdown in any of those five games, and Tillman has a pair of picks and a pair of passes defensed.
Tillman is physical like few corners and within the Bears’ cover-two scheme he has had the beating of Johnson. Last year Megatron went over 100 receiving yards nine times (including the playoff game), and three of those were over 200, but against Tillman he totaled just 130 yards over two games, and Tillman intercepted a pass while Johnson failed to record a touchdown. With Tim Jennings beginning the 2012 season on fire, and actually out-performing his teammate on the other side, Johnson is going to have as tough a test as he will run up against in 2012.
The Lions are at their best when they can feed him the football, but if they’re going to keep going to the well to get him the ball, they’re likely going to have to try and force a few passes in there. This will be a matchup worth keeping an eye on.
The Quarterbacks
There is no way of avoiding it, this game likely comes down to which talented gun-slinging quarterback makes the fewest mistakes. The NFC North might have lost Brett Favre after the Packers and Vikings each got a turn to experience his unique brand of play, but the Lions and Bears both have passers with more than a little Favre in their makeup. Jay Cutler may trust his arm more than any other quarterback in football and will give defenses a chance consistently with throws where he just decides that he can fit a bullet into a window. Matthew Stafford may have thrown for over 5,000 yards last season, but at PFF we always cautioned that his play did not live up to those numbers, and we’re beginning to feel a little smug about the way he has played so far this season.
Stafford’s play under pressure hasn’t been great, but a far bigger issue is his play when he has been kept completely clean in the pocket, because the Lions' offensive line has played well. When Stafford has been under no pressure at all this year he has actually thrown more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (three).
The good news for Lions fans is that he is unlikely to face much in the way of creative and esoteric coverages from the Bears. They run a very limited set of coverages and just rely on being better than you are to stop the pass. Stafford isn’t likely to be confused by what he sees, but he will face some close coverage and tight windows.
Cutler, as ever, just needs to reign himself in and not make the crucial bad play that can torpedo his side. He has as much arm talent as any quarterback, but he will rely on that arm too much on occasions, and at the moment he isn’t being at his prolific best to overcome the negative plays. It’s a battle of talented but flawed quarterbacks, and it’s likely to come down to not how many good plays each makes, but how many awful ones.
Urlaching in the Middle
The Bears have relied on the play of Brian Urlacher from the moment he was drafted. He has been Chicago’s Ray Lewis, and the team has missed him any time he has been forced out of the line up through injury. This time he remains on the field, but injuries have clearly taken a hammer to his play, because he has been a shell of the player we are used to seeing. While you’ll no doubt hear Jon Gruden tell you about how good he has at some point during the game, he has three games this season graded at -2.9 or worse, and no game above +0.5, compared to eight games a year ago at +1.0 or above and none as bad as -2.9.
Urlacher’s skills were always heavily predicated on his speed, range and ability to move around, both from sideline to sideline and in coverage. His knee injury is getting him to spots a half step late and his mind hasn’t yet caught up to what his knee won’t let him do anymore. The Lions are going to work the middle of the field with several players, regardless of what happens with their ornamental running game, and Urlacher will be tested. If he responds with the kind of performances we have seen so far from him in 2012, that gives an edge to the Lions' offense against a Bears defense without too many areas of weakness.
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