It's back-to-back divisional games for the Jets, and after being defeated in overtime in Foxboro they have to face the Dolphins coming off their bye. This is the rematch of the Week 3 game that also finished in overtime, but there the Jets came out on top. Lots of close games in the AFC East so far, exactly what could be expected from that division, and what we can expect from this game.
The Dolphins are one of the surprises of the season, particularly their rookie quarterback, Ryan Tannehill. Many people believed he wasn’t NFL-ready, but he is proving them wrong. Actually, with Ryan Fitzpatrick struggling and Mark Sanchez failing to find consistency in his game, Tannehill could be considered the second-best quarterback in the division already. This Sunday the Jets defense will put that sentence to the test, and that’s a big test for a rookie quarterback.
Sanchez has looked better in the past two games, but is still far from what the Jets wanted from a franchise quarterback. He needs a consistent performance to take some pressure off, and this game, right before the bye-week, is the perfect time to do it. Let’s focus on the three keys for the matchup.
Throwing Deep
Testing the secondary in the deep half of the field is an important part of both offenses. The Jets are throwing deep more, and better, than last year — up from 10.5% of attempts in 2011 to 13.3% this year, with the completion percentage improving from 35.1% to 41.4%. Those numbers are a slight but important improvement for an offense in need of big plays. In the last game however, Sanchez showed his best and worst on these kinds of throws. With 11:30 to go in the first quarter against the Patriots, Sanchez connected with Jeremy Kerley on a beautiful pass to the right, outside the numbers for 26 yards, getting into the red zone. On the other hand, Sanchez later threw a forced, underthrown deep ball in the same direction intended for Stephen Hill that was picked off by Dennard. The best and the worst of Sanchez on display in not only in the same game but on similar throws.
Not all of this improvement in the deep pass is because of Sanchez. He has found, in Kerley and Hill, the weapons he needed. Kerley has been targeted eight times in 20+ yards passes, catching seven for 211 yards. Hill is having some drop issues in his rookie year, but that’s not the case on deep throws. Although he has been targeted six times on deep balls, only two of those passes were catchable and he caught both — one of them for a touchdown. With their different styles, they are a big challenge for every defense. It’s not easy to match Hill’s raw athleticism and Kerley’s quickness.
The Dolphins aren’t making Tannehill throw deep a lot — just 9.6% of his passes are for 20+ yards — but when he does, he has been really successful. Completing 11 of 19 passes for 395 yards and two touchdowns are excellent numbers for a rookie. His best partner in the deep game is Brian Hartline, who has caught seven deep balls for 293 yards, which represents almost 75% of the total deep yards Tannehill has thrown for. This connection will have to face one of the best cornerbacks of the moment, Antonio Cromartie. In their first meeting back in Week 3, Cromartie was the winner, having allowed just one completion in seven passes thrown to Hartline — although that one completion came on a deep ball for 41 yards.
Reggie Bush vs. Jets Defensive Line
The first game against the Jets was an early turning point of the season for Reggie Bush. He came to that game averaging over 6.0 yards per carry, and averaged 6.1 on the 10 carries he had in the contest before he was injured when LaRon Landry hit his knee. What happened after that? Bush didn’t miss a single game, but his numbers have been decreasing ever since. His average yards per carry in the past three games have been 3.9, 2.5 and 1.4. He is still highly ranked in our signature stats, however — 11th (29.0) in Elusive Rating and sixth (35.6) in Breakaway Percentage. Facing the defense that brought him down may light a fire under him and bring the best Bush back.
Entering the season, the Jets were hoping for a breakout year from Muhammad Wilkerson, and the second-year player is close to the level the staff expected from him, at least in the running game. He is the second-highest rated 3-4 defensive end in run defense (just behind the beast named J.J. Watt) and third in Run Stop Percentage, with 23 defensive stops in 188 run snaps. Wilkerson’s best game until now was against the Dolphins, with eight stops in nine tackles. Right behind Wilkerson in Run Stop Percentage is his fellow linemen Mike DeVito and Quinton Coples. That makes the Jets' defensive line one of the best in the league stopping the run — they had some rough games early in the season, but have found the rhythm in the last weeks.
Dolphins Defensive Ends vs. Jets Offensive Tackles
The spotlight of this matchup will occur, again, on the right side of the Jets' line — Austin Howard vs. Cameron Wake. In their first meeting, Wake abused Howard, recording three hits and eight hurries — an outstanding performance in an outstanding season for the Dolphins' defensive end. Wake is the leader in our Pass Rushing Productivity signature stat, getting pressure on the quarterback in 15.7% of his pass rushing snaps. In his first season as starter, Howard isn’t handling the job very well. He is one the worst offensive tackles in Pass Blocking Efficiency, allowing three sacks, seven hits and 19 harries, as the Jets continue to look for a worthy successor to Damien Woody.
On the left side, D’Brickashaw Ferguson is getting into rhythm as the season goes on and is starting to perform at the level he did in 2010. He has just 10 total pressures allowed, and no sacks, in 236 snaps, making him a Top 10 tackle in Pass Blocking Efficiency. Ferguson will have to deal with Jared Odrick and Olivier Vernon. Odrick is the starter but Vernon’s role on passing downs is growing. The rookie began the season playing around 30% of the snaps, and now that percentage is at 40. Vernon comes into this one fresh off his best game of the year, as he recorded two sacks and two hits (plus four defensive stops) versus the Rams. It is easy to spot the huge difference between Vernon and Odrick by checking their pass rushing stats — Odrick has twice the number of pass rushing snaps, but the same number of total pressures.
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