When you talk about teams playing better than expected, the discussion should begin with the Minnesota Vikings, but don’t sleep on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Their 2-4 record doesn’t reflect just how improved this franchise has been. They have yet to lose by more than seven points, and if they were better at closing out games they would be talked about realistically as a playoff contender. Their offseason upgrades for the most part have worked out, and more time together will give them more chemistry and a chance to be competitive.
Home teams typically win on Thursday Night Football (12 of the last 14, actually), especially when they are the better team. However, the season so far has taught us to expect the Buccaneers to keep this game close. The strengths of Minnesota line up with those of Tampa Bay, which will lead to an interesting chess match that will be telling in the direction both teams' season takes.
Let’s look at some of the key match ups.
Adrian Peterson vs. Buccaneers Run Defense
We are nearly halfway into the season, and Adrian Peterson should be the early favorite for Comeback Player of the Year. He is at his best when running between the tackles where he averages 5.8 yards per attempt, which is third-highest among players with at least 20 attempts. When he goes outside the tackles, he is down to 3.4 yards per attempt. Part of his success lies with his offensive line, where center John Sullivan is the starting center in our NFC Pro Bowl Cheat Sheet.
If anyone can stop Peterson, it’s the Buccaneers. While this might surprise you, they have allowed just 2.4 yards per attempt when opposing backs have run between the tackles, which is the lowest in the league. A large part of the success is a finally healthy Gerald McCoy. Although his 11 stops don’t seem dominant, there have been a number of plays where he has gotten to the inside of the guard in order to disrupt the run and allow a teammate to finish off the play. Rookie Lavonte David has the highest Run Stop Percentage for 4-3 outside linebackers at 14.7, and has also played a big role in the Buccaneers' defensive turn around.
Buccaneers Offensive Line vs. Vikings Defensive Line
While Jared Allen isn’t recording sacks at a historic level like last year, the defensive line has remained quietly effective in their pass rush. Allen is on a five-game streak where he’s recorded at least one sack, one hit, and two hurries. Defensive tackle Kevin Williams has had his snaps reduced this year from 88.4% of snaps in 2011 to 70.8% in 2012, but his Pass Rushing Productivity of 5.0 is still very respectable for a tackle. The defensive end opposite Allen is Brian Robison, who has been very hot-and-cold this season. He had nine overall pressures in the first game, has averaged 2.2 pressures per game in the five games after, and then had 10 pressures last week against the Cardinals.
While it’s impossible to fully stop the Vikings from hurrying the quarterback, the Buccaneers can certainly slow them down. As a unit they’ve allowed four sacks, which is the second-lowest in the league, and 50 total pressures allowed, which ranks sixth. Their top priority is stopping Allen, who will be going against left tackle Donald Penn. Penn hasn’t allowed a single pressure over the last two weeks, and has allowed just one sack and no hits on the year. Josh Freeman averages 9.4 yards per attempt, and has 10 touchdowns compared to two interceptions when he is not pressured. Basically, if Tampa Bay can keep the Vikings' defenders away, Freeman is capable of having a big game.
Vincent Jackson vs. Vikings Secondary
It took a few weeks for Vincent Jackson to make an impact with the Buccaneers, but in recent weeks he has been on in a big way. Over the last three games he has 17 receptions for 382 yards and four touchdowns. Some teams put their best cornerback against the opposition’s best receiver, but the Vikings are not one of those teams. On 72.6% of his snaps, Jackson lines up out wide, so on the majority of them he will be up against Chris Cook on the right and rookie Josh Robinson on the left. If the Buccaneers want Jackson to be most effective, they would line him up on the offense's right to face Robinson, who is allowing a 76.7% catch rate; the league's seventh-highest.
On passes thrown to Jackson, the Average Depth of Target is 16.1 yards, good for 10th-highest for receivers with at least 10 targets. That means safeties Harrison Smith and Jamarca Sanford may also play a big role in trying to defend Jackson. Smith has just as many catches allowed (six) as big plays — one interception and five passes defended. We could see anything from a huge game from Jackson to having no impact, completely depending on how well each of these defenders play.
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