The last time the Broncos went in to Foxboro, they suffered a 35-point defeat to end their season in the divisional playoffs. However, they did have a different quarterback playing in that game. Peyton Manning (+4.2) will lead Denver this time around and will have another shot to take down his arch-nemesis Tom Brady.
Compared to previous seasons, the 2012 Patriots have been a much more balanced team. They will counter Manning and co. with an improved defense, thanks largely to first-round picks Chandler Jones and Dont’a Hightower. Stevan Ridley (+4.9) has helped revive a running game that now allows the offense to stay on track and can keep opposing defenses on the field. Even considering the improvement of the defenses in this matchup, it could still come down to the quarterbacks. Get ready for Brady-Manning Bowl XIII
Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning
Okay, this one is obvious, but it will be the matchup everyone wants to see. Two of the greatest quarterbacks of all time will meet for the 13th time this Sunday, but this will be the first contest where Manning faces New England as a Bronco. It hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing with his new team so far. While he has excelled in throwing passes outside the numbers, he has a -2.4 rating and thrown all three of his interceptions on passes over the middle. As he establishes chemistry with his young, talented receivers Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas, Manning could give the Broncos a dominant aerial attack.
Brady will lead his team fresh from a 52-point performance against the Bills in Week 3. Brady (+16.8) is currently our second-highest rated quarterback. He is also second in the NFL in PFF QB rating at 101.23. New England’s passing offense, which centers on tight ends and slot receivers, has allowed Brady to dominate the middle of the field. His rating of +10.3 on passes traveling 10-19 yards is among the best in the league. With new wide out Brandon Lloyd, there is no reason to believe Brady can’t continue to play at a Hall of Fame level.
Ryan Clady vs. Chandler Jones
Ryan Clady has rated well in every season since his rookie year in 2008, until a rough 2011 campaign. In one of the more dramatic turnarounds in this young season, Clady is off to a great start. After a -13.1 rating and ranking 40th in Pass Block Efficiency in 2011, he has allowed only one QB pressure in all four games this season. His 99.5 PBE in 2012 is currently tops among offensive tackles. With the Broncos losing center J.D. Walton for the season, it will be even more important for Clady to keep up his impressive pace to keep their quarterback upright.
There is no doubt that Clady will go head-to-head with rookie sensation Chandler Jones plenty of times. Jones is second in our Race for Rookie of the Year. He has played 249 snaps in his first season, close to 90% of the defensive plays. The pass rush numbers have been solid (two sacks, three hits, and 10 hurries), but Jones' +5.6 rating in run defense is even more impressive. There is no doubt this rookie has given a lift to his defense, and he will do his best to give the Broncos' left tackle trouble.
Patriots Receivers vs. Broncos Secondary
With dynamic pass rushers Elvis Dumervil and Von Miller, the Patriots know they may not always have a long time to throw the ball. If they want to be successful in the passing game, the receiver will need to get open — and fast. Slot receiver Wes Welker (+2.8) seemed to fall out of favor at the beginning of the year, but has still made a strong impact in the passing game. He leads the league in receiving yards from the slot with 341. Brandon Lloyd (+5.0) has looked good as the Pats new wideout, but has not had a strong connection with Brady so far. He has been targeted on eight deep balls in 2012, but with only three of them catchable he has yet to make a major impact. And of course, Rob Gronkowski will attract attention from the defense. He has been more impressive as a blocker so far (+7.2) but still remains a huge part of the passing game.
The Broncos will do their best to slow the passing game with a secondary led by the wily old veteran Champ Bailey, who can still get the job done (+1.9 coverage) at the age of 34. Given the Patriots' success with intermediate to deep routes, safeties Rahim Moore and Mike Adams will face a tall task. However, their combined coverage rating of +3.7 suggests they are up to the challenge. If the Denver secondary can hold up well, their pass rush will make it a painful day for Brady.
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