The house of ‘Cards' finally fell last week, but for most observers, and even Arizona fans, that house had been on shaky ground all season. Protection problems and injuries on the offensive side of the ball have had many people question whether this Cardinals team is truly a legitimate playoff contender, or just another pretender. It’s looking like they will need to keep getting big help from their defense to have a shot as the season goes on.
For the Bills, this game can’t come any sooner. They need to do something to move on from two of the most humiliating back-to-back defeats in franchise history. Staying over in Phoenix to get their head right and refocus after what happened to them seems very prudent. The less said the better. Let’s move on.
Kevin Kolb vs. Bills Safeties
Throughout the offseason, there was quite a bit of talk concerning the dismal state of affairs at the Cardinals’ QB position, and for good reason. Both John Skelton and Kevin Kolb had 2011 PFF grades among the bottom tier of the league’s QBs, and the Cardinals flirted with the Peyton Manning-derby before bringing the two back for an open competition in camp. The preseason wasn’t particularly kind to either and expectations quickly bottomed out for the Cardinals’ 2012 passing attack.
A Week 1 injury to Skelton forced Kolb back into the starting role, and it looks like he won’t be relinquishing it anytime soon. In spite of the pressure he’s endured (over 40% of his drop-backs) he’s currently ranked 19th in our PFF grading (+3.3). Kolb’s decision-making seems to have played the biggest role in his improvement, along with the coaching staff playing more to his strengths. Last year, he threw one interception for every 19 aimed passes. This year that ratio has dropped significantly to one interception for every 75 aimed passes.
Kolb, and the Cardinals' offense in general, appear to have a very distinct ‘sweet spot' on the field when it comes to passing. At PFF, we chart the locations where QBs target their passes, and in 2011 both Kolb and Skelton had QB ratings and PFF grades that ‘jumped off the page' on certain zones in comparison to the rest of their passing. These were on throws targeted at a depth of 10-19 yards and from the left sideline to the middle of the field. That trend continues this year with Kolb grading out at +8.2 in that same area — and -3.0 everywhere else.
To thwart success at that depth and location on the field, you need help from your safeties. As much maligned as the Bills have been the last few games, their safeties have continued to perform well, especially in coverage. Jairus Byrd's +6.3 coverage grade is good for second among NFL safeties with much of that earned from two forced fumbles, an interception and some sure tackling (only one missed tackle on receivers).
Byrd doesn’t get targeted much in coverage (four receptions on five targets, 72.9 passer rating) which is likely because he and veteran George Wilson (+1.8 coverage) play a deep, free safety role on most passing downs without primary coverage responsibilities. Wilson has been doing a lot of tackling lately, but most have been of the downfield, touchdown-saving variety. Wilson has only three defensive stops on the season, which is something to track.
LaRod Stephens-Howling vs. Bills Run Defense
The Cardinals received a major blow to their already reeling offense when, for a second straight year, they lost running back Ryan Williams to a season-ending injury. With Beanie Wells already out until at least November with a turf toe injury, the cupboard is starting to look pretty bare for a unit averaging just 63 yards per game. LaRod Stephens-Howling is the likely starter here, but he’s still dealing with a hip injury himself.
A seventh-round pick in 2009, Stephens-Howling has been primarily a special teams contributor for the Cardinals. He normally gets only a handful of snaps and two or three touches every week from the running back position. His most extensive action came in the final game last season where he ran 21 times for 93 yards and a touchdown. Over half of those attempts came outside the tackles and Stephens-Howling likes to get to the perimeter as a receiver as well, it's where he had two of Arizona’s biggest plays last season. Both were touchdowns via short receptions over the middle that he brought to the edge and then outraced everyone down the sideline. In Week 13 against the Cowboys, it was a dramatic 52-yard game-winner in overtime.
The Cardinals' running game woes couldn't come at a better time for the Bills. Only a few weeks ago, we had the Bills graded out as one of the elite run-stopping units in the league. That was before their two-game buzz-saw performance against the Patriots and 49ers which Ben Stockwell details for you right here.
Is the Bills run defense really that bad? Probably not. The 49ers absolutely dismantled a stout Jets run defense for 251 yards and three touchdowns the week before they faced the Bills. Then came the redesigned Patriots, steamrolling the Broncos for 245 yards at 5.6 yards-a-pop just after it was their turn to rough up the Bills. So, where does the Buffalo defense really stand in all of this? If the Cardinals run all over them, you can stick a fork in them — but I wouldn’t count on it.
Greg Toler vs. T.J. Graham
The Cardinals have been easing cornerback Greg Toler (+0.1) into the season gradually and he appears to be back and healthy after his first start last week in place of William Gay (-6.0). Toler had a respectable sophomore season in 2010 as he graded out among the league’s Top 50 CBs. Arizona was counting on some big strides from him in 2011 before a knee injury in the preseason landed him on IR.
As far as this season is concerned, Toler has held up well in coverage, allowing receptions on only seven of the 14 times he’s been targeted, and has also snagged an interception. Opponents have a scant QB rating of 67.9 when throwing into his coverage at this point.
The Cardinals have kept Toler exclusively on the outside (no slot coverage snaps) so when the Bills’ No. 2 wide out, Donald Jones, moves to the slot (67% of the time on passing plays) Toler will likely be matched up on rookie receiver T.J. Graham. A third-round pick out of NC State, Graham has seen his playing time increase over the past few weeks. The scouting consensus on Graham prior to the draft was that even with his smaller stature (5-foot-11), his elite vertical speed and big-play ability would provide a deep threat on the outside. Interestingly enough, Graham has gotten nearly all of his production so far on shorter routes such as slants, ins and wide receiver screens, and has yet to break one deep.
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