The Chicago Bears head to Florida to play the Jacksonville Jaguars this weekend. After a crushing Thursday night defeat at the hands of the Packers in Week 2, the Bears have put the loss behind them en route to comfortable wins in Weeks 3 and 4. It looks like they will get Matt Forte back and while Jay Cutler still routinely camps out on his back foot when throwing, he’s looked better and is entering this game in rhythm with his receivers.
The Jaguars, with a new owner and rookie head coach, have gotten a lot of improvement out of their second-year passer, but it hasn’t been enough and they exit the first quarter of the season at 1-3.
While this may look like a heavy mismatch after Week 4, the inconsistency on both sides could make it interesting. Here are three matchups to keep an eye on.
Bears Pass Rush vs. Jaguars Offensive Line
Through four games, the Jacksonville offensive line has allowed a league-high 62 pressures on 134 pass blocking plays, good for a league-worst Pass Blocking Efficiency rating of 63.1. And it’s safe to say they’re looking to improve after being dominated on the interior a week ago by Geno Atkins. The left guard position was so bad that Eben Britton was benched, but not before getting steamrolled to the tune of eight QB disruptions (five of which came from Atkins) in just 22 snaps in pass protection. His replacement didn’t fare much better as Mike Brewster gave up a hurry and two sacks and was particularly susceptible to the bull rush.
Against the Bears they’ll see a lot of Henry Melton who’s coming off of an outstanding performance of his own on MNF – he ended with a sack, hit, and hurry in 33 rushes against Dallas. Melton plays more often on the offensive right at left defensive tackle, though, with 101 snaps at DLT on the season and 73 at DRT. Stephen Paea plays more often on the offensive left (109 snaps at DRT with 67 at DLT) and more frightening for the Jaguars, he’s been the Bears’ highest-rated pass rusher this season at +2.2.
Jacksonville’s line is slightly more stable on the edge, where left tackle Eugene Monroe (+7.0) lines up. He’s the only player of eight Jaguars who have seen snaps at offensive line to have a positive overall grade on the season, and he will matchup against Julius Peppers and rookie Shea McClellin. Peppers has been just average rushing the passer, but McClellin is the eighth-ranked 4-3 end in Pass Rushing Productivity, with 11 quarterback disruptions in roughly 82 pass rushes.
One bright spot for the Jaguars is that Blaine Gabbert hasn’t been horrible under pressure. He’s middle of the pack with a 62.9 Accuracy Percentage when pressured and has yet to throw an interception. However, he takes a sack on 21.8% of those plays, the 10th-highest rate in the NFL.
Passing Against the Chicago Secondary
When the Jaguars pass, in addition to keeping Gabbert clean, they have to get past an extremely talented secondary led by corner Tim Jennings who’s playing at an All-Pro level through the first four games and sits atop PFF’s coverage rankings with a grade of +7.2. He’s allowed 14 completions on 33 targets, but with four interceptions and an additional four pass defenses, opposing quarterbacks have just a 15.9 rating throwing at him. Quarterbacks haven’t had much success throwing at Charles Tillman either – they have a rating of just 41.2 in 13 pass attempts in Tillman’s direction.
Gabbert will likely target slot corner DJ Moore, who’s given up 18 catches on 24 targets this season, two of them going for scores. Of 108 passes this season, Gabbert has thrown just eight longer than 20 yards in the air and 17 at intermediate distance (between 10 and 20 yards). Of those 25 passes over 10 yards in the air, just three have gone to the left side of the field and he didn’t attempt a single pass there against the Bengals. In fact, on passes beyond the line of scrimmage, he’s thrown just 18% to the left side of the field, compared to roughly 32% to the right and 50% to the middle of the field. He’ll want to throw left more often and stay away from the right side against the Bears, where Jennings spends an overwhelming majority of snaps.
Of course, the onus is also on the Jaguar receivers to get open and so far they haven’t done a great job – Cecil Shorts is the only receiver with a positive grade in the passing game through four games. Rookie Justin Blackmon should get plenty of looks after receiving a team-high 10 targets against the Bengals, though he’ll primarily be matched up on Jennings, as he’s seen 61% of his snaps as an outside receiver, mostly on the right side. He’ll have to step up in order for the Jaguars to be successful in the passing game. So far, Blackmon’s catching only 43.5% of targets and when he does catch the ball, he’s going down almost immediately with an average of just 1.2 YAC per reception.
Cutler-to-Marshall
After a rocky, inconsistent start to the season, Cutler got back on track against the Cowboys, completing 75% of his passes and throwing two touchdowns. He was especially effective throwing to top weapon Brandon Marshall, who caught seven of eight targets for 138 yards and a touchdown, good for a perfect 158.3 passer rating on those throws. Five of his catches came short over the middle, but he was nevertheless effective at getting open in that area, where he’s been most dangerous this season. The two have hooked up almost everywhere on the field except for deep left, where Cutler has no completions and an interception in five attempts to his favorite target.
Marshall lines up almost exclusively as an outside receiver, and more often than not is on the left side at LWR. This means he’ll see a lot of Derek Cox (+3.9), who’s been solid since his return from injury, only allowing four catches for 24 yards on nine targets. On the right side, Rashean Mathis hasn’t been quite as good – he’s giving up 1.28 yards per cover snap and quarterbacks have a 107.8 rating when throwing in his direction.
Either way, expect Cutler to have just enough time to throw as the Jaguars have PFF’s third-worst pass rushing grade as a team, and while Chicago’s offensive line has been leaky at times, they’ve shown the ability to play well enough.
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