- The recent track record is bleak: Of the 113 quarterbacks that were either drafted outside of the first round or appeared as an undrafted free agent, just eight have a career 70.0 overall PFF grade.
- More of a path as a backup: Players like Mason Rudolph, Tyler Huntley and Brandon Allen have all nicely settled into QB2 roles, retaining roster slots for many seasons.
- 2026 NFL Draft season is here: Try the best-in-class PFF Mock Draft Simulator and learn about 2026's top prospects while trading and drafting for your favorite NFL team.
Estimated Reading Time: 16 minutes
Every NFL offseason, the swing of the quarterback carousel crescendos in free agency, then hits a lull — but for only a month until the draft rolls around. Prized arms drive trades throughout the first round, with teams making years-long gambles due to the glimmer of changing their franchise fortunes overnight.
For the 2026 NFL Draft, there will likely be a lot less of those arms races (pun intended) on Day 1. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the lone quarterback that is a lock to be selected in the first round — and he may be the only one taken for quite some time.
Indeed, names like Ty Simpson, Garrett Nussmeier, Drew Allar, Carson Beck and Cade Klubnik profile as the second wave of options, but all rank between No. 36 and No. 140 on PFF’s Predictive Big Board. Naturally, there’s a chance that a team could trade up into the end of the first round for any, but there could realistically be a 40-pick gap between Mendoza and the second quarterback selected.
Many of the players mentioned above have significant weaknesses, and are not close to being ready to start in the pros. But with their statuses as five-star recruits, high talents and pedigrees at big-name programs, it’s easy to want to take a shot on one — especially if they can sit and learn for a year.
After all, the last 10 years of the draft has provided precedent for teams obtaining elite quarterbacks outside of the first round. Consider the Cowboys taking Dak Prescott in the fourth round in 2016, or the 49ers’ selection of Brock Purdy as Mr. Irrelevant in 2022. It’s clear that with a great prospect-team marriage — and perhaps a stroke of luck — a multi-year, top-notch starter can be located outside of the first 32 picks.
However, the broader picture of the past decade reveals that any team taking a quarterback outside of the first round can’t expect much to materialize in terms of results.
In 2025, 14 quarterbacks were either selected in Rounds 2-7 or appeared in a game as an undrafted free agent. The only one in that crop to play 500 or more snaps and record at least a 70.0 overall PFF grade was the Saints’ Tyler Shough, who himself wasn’t far out of the first round as the 40th overall pick. On the other end of the spectrum, five of those quarterbacks — Dillon Gabriel, Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers, Brady Cook and Max Brosmer — all finished below a 50.0 PFF passing grade.
Granted, the 2025 class doesn’t have a fully representative volume of snaps under its belt quite yet. But as of now, it’s highly unlikely that anyone other than Shough has even a slim chance at becoming a solid, multi-season starter.
The sun has far from set on this latest quarterback crop, but it tends to reflect trends established over the last 10 years of signal-callers drafted in the second round or later.
From 2016 to 2025, 113 quarterbacks were either picked from Round 2 onward or nabbed as a UDFA. Just eight — yes, really — have earned a 70.0 overall grade while playing at least 500 snaps in their careers, good for a 7.1% rate.
| Player | Draft Year | Draft Round | Overall PFF Grade | Career Snaps |
| Dak Prescott | 2016 | 4th | 91.7 | 9,785 |
| Brock Purdy | 2022 | 7th | 91.2 | 3,304 |
| Jalen Hurts | 2020 | 2nd | 90.7 | 5,975 |
| Taysom Hill | 2017 | UDFA | 80.4 | 2,588 |
| Tyler Shough | 2025 | 2nd | 74.6 | 605 |
| Jacoby Brissett | 2016 | 3rd | 72.9 | 4,528 |
| Jake Browning | 2019 | UDFA | 71.6 | 685 |
| Malik Willis | 2022 | 3rd | 70.9 | 547 |
Even among these eight players, there are still some asterisks that need to be provided. Willis has positioned himself to garner at least $25 million annually next week as the top free-agent arm, but the jury is still out on whether he’s become a good gunslinger despite being a third-round pick. Similarly, Hill has attempted only 310 passes in his career, with his success arriving as predominantly a tight end/hybrid player.
Indeed, analyzing the list of non-first-round quarterbacks is more of a Guess Who? of infamous names instead of those who have worked out to even a small degree. For extra measure, consider that only 19 of the 113 quarterbacks have secured even a 60.0 overall PFF grade — which is still well-below-average at the position.
It’s important to recognize that the quarterback “hit” rate is not high anywhere, with plenty of busts dotting the first round almost annually. But that becomes even more magnified outside of the first night of the draft. Based on recent history, identifying a starting quarterback outside of the first round is nearly impossible — and should serve as a cautionary tale to teams picking one this year.
While these names haven’t reached the NFL successes they had hoped, the solace is that they’ve carved out roles as backups across multiple teams. More specifically, 19 of these 113 quarterbacks have played at least 1,000 career snaps, and far more have experienced at least 200 snaps. Players like Tyler Huntley, Mason Rudolph, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen and Jeff Driskel haven’t blossomed as their organizations hoped when they were drafted, but it’s still an accomplishment to retain a roster spot for five or more seasons — and to be at least serviceable if a starter goes down.
It goes without saying that Simpson, Nussmeier, Beck, Allar, Klubnik and the other quarterbacks currently viewed as long-shot first-rounders could certainly grow into tremendous NFL players. But recent history is far from on their side — suggesting they probably won’t succeed if given a regular starting chance, let alone play 500 career snaps.
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