Fantasy football mock drafts: Going deep with a 16-teamer

The 2017 fantasy football landscape has started to take shape now that we’re through the draft and the majority of free agency. Although there are position battles to be won in training camp, the scene is set.

PFF Fantasy hosted a 16-team, full-PPR mock draft. The slow draft was completed over the course of two weeks and featured several PFF Fantasy staffers in addition to fantasy writers from other outlets.

Today, we’ll break down the draft on a round-by-round basis. I’ll offer my analysis on the best value picks, we’ll look for draft trends that can help you prepare for your league, and I’ll provide the rationale behind each pick made by yours truly. Let’s dive in.

Round 1

Notes: The first round was particularly RB heavy for a full-point PPR format. This signals a shift from last year’s devaluation of the RB position at the top of drafts. There are only so many locked-in bell-cow options and if you don’t get one, you’re forced to bank on so many factors that are still in play when predicting a team’s running back situation before the start of training camp. It was interesting to see Todd Gurley go off the board in the first 15 picks. Sean McVay’s presence should be a boost for Gurley’s stock, but the Rams may have not done enough to improve their offensive line. Signing Andrew Whitworth was a boost overall, but he’s made his mark with elite pass-blocking grades and not the opposite.

My pick: Elliott continues to be the one RB who consistently falls out of the first three picks. I’m not nearly as concerned as others. Sure, the loss of Ronald Leary will hurt, and the Cowboys lack depth on the offensive line, but Elliott is one of the few true workhorse backs. The Cowboys’ lack of interest in re-signing Lance Dunbar at least hints at Elliott’s workload in the passing game increasing as he becomes more comfortable in the offense. Dez Bryant is fully healthy for the first time in several offseasons and that will also open up more space in the running game for Elliott.

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Round 2

Notes: We see the first two rookies come off the board early at No. 20 and No. 21 overall. Both Mixon and McCaffrey have a ton of upside, but they may also go through growing pains common for rookies learning a new scheme and neither player has a clear path toward a workhorse role like Elliott had in 2016. They come off the board several picks before Fournette, who has a much clearer path to a workhorse role. The rest of the second round is filled with some of the more interesting narratives — will DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson bounce back to 2015 form, at what point is Rob Gronkowski worth jumping in on, etc.

My pick: Miller played through a shoulder injury that sapped his physicality in addition to an ankle injury that sidelined him for the final two weeks of the 2016 season. His first year in Houston didn’t go as planned, but now fully healthy, there’s reason to believe we will once again see the hyper-efficient player Miller was during his first four seasons. The addition of Deshaun Watson at quarterback should be an upgrade for the entire offense. Even if Miller doesn’t get to 299 touches again in 2017, he will reintroduce the chunk yardage plays that were so common before last season if he can stay healthy.

Best value pick: Keenan Allen. At No. 32 overall, Rich nabs the one Chargers receiver who has the best chemistry with Philip Rivers, a proven track record, and will be almost a full year removed from his injury by Week 1. Rivers has leaned on the slot receiver in the past — if Allen does convert to the slot this won’t negatively impact his fantasy value.

Round 3

Notes: It seems that drafters are more OK with grabbing Jordan Reed now that he’s enjoyed a relatively unscathed season, but Reed’s concussion history still looms and his target share could change for the worse if Terrelle Pryor and Josh Doctson can fulfill their potential. By the time August rolls around, I expect Marshawn Lynch’s ADP to rise from this spot at No. 37 overall — especially in non-expert leagues. His name brand will carry his ADP up. Crowder was very efficient in 2016 taking over the slot role, but I think talent will win out in the red zone and on big plays. I’ll take Pryor, Doctson, and Reed in that department any day. Bilal Powell has become a trendy pick in expert leagues after outplaying Matt Forte by leaps and bounds in 2016.

My pick: Stefon Diggs recently said he was never the same player after a Week 4 groin injury that sapped his explosion. Diggs went on to rack up 84 catches anyway. Diggs has graded out very well since entering the NFL and I felt he offers the most upside of any receiver here given his path to the No. 1 role and overall talent. Of course, he has to stay healthy.

Best value pick: Marshawn Lynch. The Raiders are committed to Lynch and they have a lot to offer him including a premier offensive line and a passing attack that will open up holes in the running game. Latavius Murray finished as the RB13 in this format last season despite producing both advanced and raw stats much worse than anything we’ve seen from Lynch at any point in his career.

Round 4

Notes: We see the first QB come off the board. It’s no surprise to see Rodgers first, but it’s a common trend in industry leagues to wait on the QB position. Jon Moore decided that at No. 53 overall, the value was too high to pass on Rodgers. Snead could be a sneaky bet to push for 100 receptions now that Brandin Cooks it out of the mix. Andrew Luck has the best supporting cast of his career, but the shoulder surgery scares me at this time. He’s not currently in my top five at the QB position. Martavis Bryant’s ADP seems like a lock to fluctuate throughout the rest of the offseason.

My pick: Doug Martin has drawn rave reviews for his work in OTAs thus far and he has said all the right thing about his battle with drug abuse. At No. 61 overall, you can sign me up every time for the likely lead back in what should be one of the most explosive offenses in the NFL as Jameis Winston enters year three with new weapons DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard in the mix. Martin totaled 1,673 yards and seven touchdowns in 2015.

Best value pick: Tough to argue against Montgomery here. It was between Martin and Montgomery here and I went with the more proven commodity. Montgomery led all RBs in our elusive rating over the second half of the 2016 season — one of the most predictive stats we have here at PFF. He has bulked up this offseason and will return excellent value here if he keeps the featured role.

Round 5

Notes: The QB run begins with three coming off the board in the first five picks of this round. Coleman has so much upside after producing in limited opportunities during his rookie season, but a recent injury could keep him out until training camp, so his ADP is destined to fall. Mark Ingram is an intriguing pick here given the praise just about every Saints coach and player has given Adrian Peterson so far in OTAs. With a new quarterback in Chicago, I prefer to wait for training camp reports before deciding who will be the No. 1 target in the passing game. Spencer Ware goes before talented rookie Kareem Hunt here, but it’s hard to overlook the step back Ware took in his elusive rating after inheriting a much larger workload in 2016. Paul Perkins is flying completely under the radar despite being named the starter and taking nearly every first-team snap at OTAs thus far. Perkins was CFF’s most elusive running back in the 2015 draft class that also included Ezekiel Elliott. This pick was made before Maclin was released.

My pick: Russell Wilson played through a high-ankle sprain for nearly the entire 2016 season and still managed to finish in the top 12 at his position. The injury not only affected Wilson’s rushing stats but also his ability to escape and make plays with his arm while on the run. He’s one of the top bounceback candidates at the position.

Round 6

Notes: Winston is one of the buzziest picks at the QB position and for good reason after the Buccaneers added so much talent around him this offseason. Dixon is the most elusive runner in Baltimore and good take hold of the starting job in no time after returning from suspension. The Murray pick is a head-scratcher for me here. With Dalvin Cook and Jerick McKinnon in the mix, it’s difficult to envision much of a role for Murray in 2017. Ben Roethlisberger’s troubling home/road split are not just a narrative and there are still plenty of QBs I’d prefer at this pick who will go several picks later.

My pick: I’m not a Fat Rob Kelley hater, and enough hasn’t been said about how well he performed in our elusive rating metric, but Perine is an excellent fit for this Redskins scheme. Perine is also not too shabby himself when it comes to creating missed tackles and yards after contact. This is another backfield that will see ADP fluctuate throughout training camp.

Best value pick: John Brown. If Brown is truly over the injuries that sapped his explosion in 2016, there’s no reason to think he can’t pick up right where he left off with Carson Palmer in 2015. The Cardinals offense is unlikely to get so unlucky with injuries again this season and Brown has a ton of upside in this offense now that Michael Floyd is gone and Larry Fitzgerald is one year older.

Round 7

Notes: It has been nearly a decade since Peterson was selected after the first 100 picks. Mike Williams comes off the board curiously late for a player with his pedigree who is joining a top quarterback like Philip Rivers who made Malcom Floyd a relevant fantasy starter. Williams’ skill set is that of a very rich man’s Floyd. I expected Prescott to go a little earlier than this given how impressive his per-snap fantasy numbers were as a rookie.

My pick: Ertz found an excellent rapport with Carson Wentz down the stretch in 2016. Over the final five games, Ertz racked up a 40/443/3 line. With Alshon Jeffery drawing double teams and Torrey Smith drawing safeties, the middle of the field will be as wide open for Ertz as it has ever been since he entered the NFL.

Best value pick: Williams, for the reasons listed above.

Round 8

Notes: Oh how the mighty have fallen, re: Randall Cobb. Once a lock to be selected in the first three rounds, Cobb now comes off the board at No. 113 overall. Given how touchdowns are the most likely statistic to see regression, I can’t understand why Cobb goes this many picks after Davante Adams. He could end up the steal of this draft. Ted Ginn Jr. is going to allow the Saints to replace Brandin Cooks’ deep threat to opposing defenses, but I think he will do more for the Saints offense than fantasy owners. Breshad Perriman didn’t look the same player he was at UCF in 2016, but now he is another year removed from the injuries.

My pick: Ross broke the combine record in the 40-yard dash and speed wins at the NFL level. Andy Dalton made Marvin Jones an efficient deep threat and Ross has more to offer than Jones ever did. As noted by our CFF analysts, Ross is much more than deep threat as well. If he stays healthy, this is my favorite pick of the draft at No. 125 overall.

Best value pick: I’ll give this one to myself with Ross or Clay with Cobb.

Round 9

Notes: Finishing this round at pick 144, this would be nearing the final round in some leagues, but not a deep 16-team draft like this one. This round is filled with boring picks (Jason Witten) and fun ones (O.J. Howard). Boring is not always a bad thing. Of course, if rookie tight ends produced like veterans, we wouldn’t see these two players selected so closely together. Eli Manning has always favored his slot receivers and Shepard could be a sneaky value here. Duke Johnson was once a darling of the fantasy community around this time last year and now he is an afterthought.

My pick: The Saints offense is not an easy one to pick up right away and this is especially true for the tight end position. Fleener feels more comfortable in year two and the results will speak for themselves. There are targets to go around now that Cooks is out of the mix.

Round 10

Notes: Thompson has been somewhat of a cheat code in PPR leagues as a capable fill-in over the last few years, but Perine’s prowess in the passing game could put an end to that fast. James White at No. 145 overall in this format is highway robbery and makes you wonder if his name didn’t show up in the available players list for every manager. Hooper is a trendy breakout pick at TE with an excellent scouting report from our college staff and solid rookie year production.

My pick: We’ve seen veterans return from serious knee injuries to be just as explosive as they were before it. We won’t know if that’s the case with Charles until training camp, but I’m more than willing to gamble at No. 157 overall. If he returns to form, the Broncos won’t keep him off the field.

Best value pick: Will Fuller. With Deshaun Watson in the mix, Fuller’s numbers should improve in year two. It also helps that he’ll now have a full year in Bill O’Brien’s scheme under his belt.

Round 11

Notes: Julius Thomas is enjoying another hype-filled offseason of buzz. Torrey Smith may have just needed a change of scenery and a pro-style quarterback who has some similarities to Joe Flacco in order to get back in the fantasy mix.

My pick: Vereen is already operating as the passing-down back for the Giants in OTAs. He will be the underneath safety valve for Eli Manning when his offensive line inevitably breaks down.

Rounds 12

Notes: You can always count on former PFF czar Mike Clay to deliver the draft’s biggest sleeper. If Golladay moves up the depth chart fast this summer, he’ll look like a genius. This seems a bit late for Cook who enters an excellent situation in Oakland. Rookie tight ends don’t often find early success, but the Giants have never been shy about playing first-round skill position players early and they have already aligned him at four different positions so far in OTAs.

My pick: Allen is going to find similar success to Marty Bennett in New England. If he can avoid the injury bug, unlike Bennett, Allen can easily return TE1 value.

Round 13

Notes: Dorsett was a trendy late-round pick last draft season. Christine Michael back on the fantasy radar?! Jesse James makes for an interesting pick with Ladarius Green gone.

My pick: The Steelers have been one of the best teams in the NFL at evaluating wide receiver talent. They got my attention with the Smith-Schuster pick.

Round 14

This round was mostly for roster filler, and the last two rounds were almost entirely kickers and defenses. This deep in a 16-teamer, you’re mostly looking for surprise guys who can pop (like Josh Gordon or Austin Seferian-Jenkins), and you can’t really call any pick “bad.” No sense in offering deep analysis on picks in the 220s or a variety of kickers.