• Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4): It’s no surprise that Hill is the highest-graded player going into this game. The veteran wide receiver finished the year as PFF’s highest-graded receiver, and it’s worth mentioning that his running mate, Jaylen Waddle, finished at No. 6 (90.7). If the Dolphins are going to win this game, they are going to need their two star receivers to play at an elite level.
• Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5): The six highest-graded players in this game are all on the Dallas side, but it's Micah Parsons who has the highest grade going into this matchup. Parsons finished as the No. 2 graded edge in the NFL, just behind Myles Garrett. He ended the year with over 100 pressures, and his versatility makes him one of the most valuable and dynamic players in the entire league.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Cleveland Browns (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans
MATCHUP TO WATCH: Texans WR Nico Collins vs. Browns CB Martin Emerson Jr.
The Browns have three excellent cornerbacks they can line up against the Texans' star wideout, but Emerson is probably best suited to the task, as he has the size, length and athleticism to match Collins on the outside. Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II are smaller cornerbacks who play big, but Emerson's length should help him stay with Collins, whose 91.0 PFF grade ranks fifth among 102 qualifying wide receivers.
If the Browns can limit Collins, they should have no problem slowing down Houston. But if this is a matchup that Collins wins, Cleveland could be in some trouble.
HIGHEST-GRADED PLAYER: Browns edge Myles Garrett (93.6)
One of the weekend's best matchups will feature Garrett against former Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. But as good as Tunsil has been this season, the advantage still goes to Garrett, who led the NFL in pass-rush win rate (28.1%) and was the highest-graded edge rusher in the league over the regular season. Garrett should have no problem wrecking the Texans' offensive game plan.
BEST BET: Browns -2.5
The Browns were able to rest up in Week 18, as several key players did not suit up. Their defense should look fast and healthy against the Texans, which should allow them to keep the score down. Can Joe Flacco and the offense score 21-plus points on the road? That seems pretty feasible. Take the Browns as a road favorite here to win and advance to Round 2.
Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-4)
Matchup to watch: Dolphins RG Robert Hunt vs. Chiefs DI Chris Jones
Hunt returned to the lineup after an extended absence, and it was notable. He solidified the interior of the offensive line for the Dolphins, allowing zero pressures across 32 pass-blocking snaps, but he'll have a tough assignment in Round 1 against Chris Jones. Miami does an excellent job of getting rid of the ball quickly to avoid pressure, but Jones can be a game-wrecker in the middle — only Aaron Donald generated more quarterback pressures over the regular season.
Highest-graded player: Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (93.7)
It’s no surprise that Hill is the highest-graded player going into this game. The veteran wide receiver finished the year as PFF’s highest-graded receiver, and it’s worth mentioning that his running mate, Jaylen Waddle, finished at No. 6 (90.7). If the Dolphins are going to win this game, they are going to need their two star receivers to play at an elite level.
Best bet: Chiefs -4
Considering how the last two months have played out, it's hard to have a lot of trust in the Chiefs, but the weather and home-field advantage will be a major advantage for Kansas City. The Dolphins aren't built to play in the cold weather, whereas the Chiefs have plenty of experience playing in the cold. It’s hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid in Round 1 of the playoffs.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills (-10)
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Steelers CB Joey Porter Jr.
The Steelers usually don't move their cornerbacks around, but they might decide to do this against the Bills. With Gabe Davis (knee) questionable to play on wild-card weekend, Diggs is the only receiver Pittsburgh needs to be concerned about. Porter is their top cornerback and has allowed a catch on just 45.3% of the passes thrown into his coverage, the second-best mark among all cornerbacks over the regular season.
Highest-graded player: Bills QB Josh Allen (91.3)
T.J. Watt (knee) is officially out of this game, so that means Josh Allen is the highest-graded player in this matchup. Allen finished the year as the No. 1 quarterback in PFF grade, narrowly beating out Dak Prescott and Lamar Jackson. Allen will need to play at a superhuman level against one of the top defenses in the NFL in order for the Bills to advance to Round 2 of the playoffs.
Best bet: Steelers +10
Frankly, this line is absurd. Pittsburgh has now won three straight games, two of which were on the road. They are running the ball extremely well and will now face one of the worst run defenses in the NFL in a bad-weather game. Pittsburgh will cover this 10-point spread, and they have a real chance to pull off the upset in Buffalo.
Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
Matchup to watch: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb vs. Packers CB Jaire Alexander
The Packers haven't often asked Alexander to follow opposing No. 1 receivers this season, but they might not have a choice here, as CeeDee Lamb lines up so often in the slot and would have a huge advantage against Keisean Nixon. Green Bay could play more bracket coverage to slow down Lamb, which means every other player would have single coverage. Instead, look for the Packers to have Alexander shadow Lamb some.
Highest-graded player: Cowboys edge Micah Parsons (92.7)
The six highest-graded players in this game are all on the Dallas side, but it's Micah Parsons who has the highest grade going into this matchup. Parsons finished as the second-highest-graded edge defender in the NFL, just behind Myles Garrett. He ended the year with over 100 pressures, and his versatility makes him one of the most valuable and dynamic players in the entire league.
Best bet: Packers +7.5 (-110)
It's not surprising to see the Cowboys as a big favorite at home, as they won all eight home games this season. But it is a bit surprising to see them get 7.5 points. Can the Packers keep this game within a touchdown? Absolutely — especially with the way Jordan Love has played over the second half of the season. Green Bay has an excellent chance of winning this game outright, and the extra half-point on the 7.5-point line makes this too good of a bet to pass up.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
Matchup to watch: Lions RG Graham Glasgow vs. Rams DT Aaron Donald
Donald hasn't received as much national attention this season, but he's been dominant once again. He finished the year as the second-highest-graded defensive tackle in the NFL (90.9) and earned a pass-rush grade of 91.5. He can still dominate a game, so Detroit's interior offensive line better be ready for an elite performance by the soon-to-be Hall of Famer.
Highest-graded player: Lions edge Aidan Hutchinson (91.0)
This game has a ton of star power on both sides, but Aidan Hutchinson is the No. 1 player to watch here. Over the last few weeks, Hutchinson has really gotten hot. He's recorded five sacks in the previous two games, and it feels like he's hit a different level. He will have a tough matchup against Rob Havenstein in Round 1, but expect Hutchinson to make an impact one way or another.
Best bet: Rams +3
This is a coinflip game that could go either way. But the Rams might be the better bet here, considering their playoff experience and offensive firepower. Plus, they are getting three points, and this could easily be a game that comes down to the final possession. Take the points here and expect a really close contest on Sunday Night Football.
Philadelphia Eagles (-3) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup to watch: Buccaneers C Robert Hainsey vs. Eagles DI Jalen Carter
The interior offensive line has been an issue for the Buccaneers all season, and it starts at center. Hainsey finished the 2023 season with a grade of 52.8, 31st out of 37 qualifying centers. He’ll be tasked with blocking Jalen Carter, who had a fantastic rookie season. This is not a matchup that favors Tampa Bay in the slightest, and they will have to devote multiple blockers to Carter on just about every snap.
Highest-graded player: Eagles WR A.J. Brown (90.0)
Brown's status is still up in the air after suffering a knee injury in Week 18. The star wide receiver has been the heart and soul of their offense and had the best season of his career in 2023, finishing the year with 106 catches for 1,456 yards and seven touchdowns. If the Eagles don’t have him for Monday, it’s hard to imagine them generating much offense against the Buccaneers.
Best bet: Eagles -3
The Eagles have to snap out of their funk, right? The Buccaneers did not play well against the Panthers in Week 18, and it's possible they were starting to feel some of the pressure of the playoffs. While Tampa Bay will be home on Monday night, it’s hard to have a lot of confidence in this team after their performances over the last two weeks. Take the Eagles -3 and expect them to figure out some way to get out of there with a win.
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