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2023 Fantasy Football Player Profile: T.J. Hockenson is one of the few safe picks at tight end

2KDMHN9 November 6th 2022: Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) warms up before the NFL game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Washington Commanders in Landover, MD. Reggie Hildred/CSM/Sipa USA(Credit Image: © Reggie Hildred/Cal Sport Media/Sipa USA)

  • T.J. Hockenson benefited from his mid-season trade to the Minnesota Vikings: He’s been given a pass-heavy offense with a great quarterback, which would help the fantasy value of any tight end.
  • Hockenson has played at a great but not at elite level: There are a few tight ends getting drafted after Hockenson even though they have graded better, but Hockenson has the volume to make up the gap.
  • The Vikings made a few changes that could hurt Hockenson: Minnesota gave tight end Josh Oliver a three-year, $21 million contract and drafted Jordan Addison in the first round.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

The fantasy football outlook series takes an in-depth look at a single player’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season. For help on draft strategy, rankings or for more details about other players, check out the rest of my summer content below. For rankings with better filtering along with auction values, check out our draft rankings page.

Want to know where you should draft T.J. Hockenson? Click here for Nathan Jahnke's top 300 fantasy football rankings

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T.J. Hockenson‘s player outlook

Hockenson has been a great, but not elite, tight end who has received enough volume to make himself look better from a fantasy perspective.

  • His 79.9 PFF receiving grade over the last three seasons ranks eighth among tight ends with at least 1000 snaps.
  • The top seven tight ends by ADP are Hockenson and six of the seven players ahead of him. The one player ahead of him by PFF grade that doesn’t have a top-seven ADP is a retired Rob Gronkowski.
  • His grade has stayed relatively consistent in the last three seasons, ranging from 73.6-76.4.
  • By most rate stats, he’s been somewhere in the top 10 but outside of the top five.
  • His 33.7 routes per game last season ranked third-most among tight ends.
  • Other elite tight ends — such as Mark Andrews, George Kittle and Kyle Pitts have played in more run-heavy offenses, which hurts their fantasy production.
  • He is only 26 years old, making him the second-youngest of the top-seven fantasy tight ends. 
  • He’s at the age where tight ends start to decline ever so slightly, but even if he follows the age curves and regresses a little, the majority of his competition would be regressing more.
  • There is also a chance he can improve his quality of play by gaining more separation and making more players miss after the catch. 

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