- Key to DFS success: Random combinations of historically similar matchups can identify counterintuitive and lower-cost DFS options with exceeding upside.
- Best relative DFS values: Jacoby Brissett and Marcus Mariota at quarterback, Khalil Herbert and J.K. Dobbins at running back, rookies Drake London and Garrett Wilson at wide receiver, Dawson Knox and Pharaoh Brown at tight end, and the New York Giants and Detroit Lions at defense are the best values relative to their DFS price for Week 2.
Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
I publish analyses on the single-game DraftKings showdown slates that use the combination of current projections, historical game results and similarity algorithms to simulate an upcoming game by looking back at the most similar historical matchups. In this analysis, I’m taking the same outline and applying it instead to the DFS main slate by projecting the likelihood each individual quarterback, running back, wide receiver, tight end and D/ST option will be the slate's highest scorer. In doing this, we can find the unlikely tournament plays who may not have been on your radar.
QUARTERBACKS
| Highest % | Player | Team | Opponent | DK Fpts | DK Salary | FD Fpts | FD Salary |
| 9.8 | Lamar Jackson | BLT | BUF | 22.7 | 8,300 | 21.3 | 8,800 |
| 9.7 | Josh Allen | BUF | BLT | 27.3 | 8,400 | 25.3 | 8,900 |
| 8.1 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | JAX | 25.2 | 8,200 | 23.6 | 8,600 |
| 6.3 | Justin Herbert | LAC | HST | 24.3 | 7,100 | 22.7 | 8,000 |
| 5.6 | Jacoby Brissett | CLV | ATL | 20.2 | 5,500 | 19.0 | 6,800 |
| 5.5 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | NE | 22.7 | 6,300 | 21.3 | 7,400 |
| 5.4 | Marcus Mariota | ATL | CLV | 19.9 | 5,600 | 18.4 | 7,300 |
| 5.3 | Jared Goff | DET | SEA | 19.6 | 5,900 | 18.5 | 7,600 |
| 4.7 | Zach Wilson | NYJ | PIT | 14.8 | 5,200 | 13.9 | 6,500 |
| 4.7 | Derek Carr | LV | DEN | 19.3 | 5,800 | 17.8 | 7,200 |
| 4.1 | Matt Ryan | IND | TEN | 19.0 | 5,600 | 17.5 | 6,700 |
| 4.0 | Geno Smith | SEA | DET | 20.1 | 5,400 | 18.5 | 6,600 |
| 3.9 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN | IND | 18.9 | 5,500 | 17.9 | 6,800 |
| 3.3 | Daniel Jones | NYG | CHI | 19.8 | 5,400 | 18.6 | 7,000 |
| 3.0 | Russell Wilson | DEN | LV | 18.5 | 6,700 | 17.5 | 7,100 |
| 2.8 | Kyler Murray | ARZ | CAR | 21.4 | 7,600 | 20.3 | 7,800 |
| 2.7 | Davis Mills | HST | LAC | 18.9 | 5,000 | 17.4 | 6,400 |
| 2.7 | Carson Wentz | WAS | DAL | 16.2 | 6,000 | 15.1 | 6,900 |
| 2.7 | Mitchell Trubisky | PIT | NYJ | 19.3 | 5,100 | 18.2 | 6,500 |
| 2.1 | Baker Mayfield | CAR | ARZ | 16.7 | 5,200 | 15.6 | 6,600 |
| 2.0 | Justin Fields | CHI | NYG | 16.4 | 5,300 | 15.4 | 6,700 |
| 1.8 | Dak Prescott | DAL | WAS | 20.1 | 6,400 | 18.7 | 7,000 |
| 1.6 | Trevor Lawrence | JAX | PHI | 16.9 | 5,700 | 15.8 | 7,500 |
| 0.5 | Brian Hoyer | NE | GB | 14.5 | 5,100 | 13.5 | 6,300 |
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