• Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love gives fantasy managers a year to ‘love’: In his first season as an NFL starter, Love ranked as the overall QB6 in fantasy points per game while ranking top-three in passing touchdowns.

• Houston Texans rookie WR Tank Dell defies the odds: After reigning as the most productive wide receiver in the FBS during his final two seasons at Houston, there was some skepticism that Dell could produce at the same level due to his small frame. He answered those questions emphatically as a rookie.

• Houston Texans RB Dameon Pierce has a disastrous second season: Pierce dominated many efficiency metrics in his rookie season, but that early success didn’t translate in Year 2. 

Estimated reading time: 8 minutes

The 2023 fantasy football season is officially a wrap, and hopefully, it has resulted in a fantasy championship (or many) for you. Along the way, there were plenty of surprises, including injuries, and just as many disappointments. Here are the three biggest surprises (and disappointments) that headlined the fantasy football season.

Biggest surprises

QB Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers

According to FantasyPros' preseason average draft position (ADP) data, Love was drafted, on average, as the QB26 off the board, meaning outside of deep 2QB or superflex leagues, he may have sat on waivers. However, Love managed to start his career off with a bang for fantasy managers who caught onto his sneaky productivity. Despite throwing to one of the most inexperienced receiving corps in the league in his first season as a starter in Matt LaFleur’s complex offensive system, Love finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback in 56.3% of games this year. His end to the season in particular was a strong one, finishing as a QB1 in seven-of-eight games to close out the fantasy season.

Love closed out his first year as a full-time starter averaging just under 19 fantasy points per game while being ranked as the overall QB6 in points per game. He was one of just three quarterbacks in the league to throw for 30 or more touchdowns alongside Dak Prescott (32 passing touchdowns) and Brock Purdy (31). Even better for fantasy managers was his ability to make plays in the run game, tacking on another 248 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Considering Love’s performance under less-than-ideal circumstances, don’t be surprised if he continues to produce in the years to come, especially as he and the playmakers around him gain more league experience.

RB Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams

Rams running back Kyren Williams wasn’t just your average, run-of-the-mill league winner. He was also the waiver wire hero of the year. Though former Ram-turned-Viking Cam Akers started out the season as the presumed starter, he struggled right out of the gate, totaling just 29 yards and a touchdown on 22 touches. From Week 2 onward, backup-turned-starter Kyren Williams arrived as a bonafide workhorse and never looked back. In 12 games this season, Williams totaled 1,350 scrimmage yards and 15 touchdowns, going on to finish as the overall RB4 in total scoring despite missing four games due to injury. 

Williams’ 90.2 PFF rushing grade ranked fifth among all running backs on the season while ranking top-10 among running backs (min. 100 rush attempts). He also averaged 5.0 yards per carry and 3.3 yards after contact per attempt while totaling a 12.3% stuff rate and 26 explosive runs. Those efforts led Williams to average 19.92 fantasy points per game this season, finishing as the overall RB1 in the most crucial week of all – your Week 17 fantasy football championship. Congratulations on your league winner, if you were lucky enough to snag him from waivers.

WR Tank Dell, Houston Texans

In his final two seasons with the Houston Cougars, wide receiver Tank Dell looked every bit the part of a superstar in the making, leading the FBS with 2,727 receiving yards and 29 receiving touchdowns in that span. However, there were plenty of concerns that his collegiate success might not translate perfectly to the NFL because of his 5-foot-8 and 165-pound frame, which ranked in the third and first percentiles for the wide receiver position, respectively. However, any questions about his size and whether or not it would limit his upside in the league were promptly answered.

In his 11 games before suffering a season-ending leg injury, Dell amassed 709 receiving yards and seven touchdowns, which ranked as the overall WR17 (half-PPR) through the first 13 weeks of the season. His 83.3 PFF receiving grade ranks 16th among all wideouts in 2023 (min. 50 targets), and he averaged a 115.2 passer rating on targets (13th) and 2.22 yards per route run (16th). In short (no pun intended), you couldn’t have asked for a more promising start to Dell’s career in what appears to be a productive offense for years to come with C.J. Stroud under center.

Biggest disappointments

QB Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence looked poised to dominate in Year 3 with several offensive weapons at the ready and another offseason under his belt with HC Doug Pederson. Not only would wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones be returning alongside tight end Evan Engram and capable receiving back Travis Etienne; but Lawrence would now also have the opportunity to throw to explosive outside playmaker Calvin Ridley. With all of those circumstances coming to a head in 2023, Lawrence was drafted as the overall QB8. Even with many key injuries at quarterback, however, Lawrence failed to make a huge impact for fantasy managers, finishing the year as the overall QB14 in total scoring and QB18 in fantasy points per game. With his 0.45 fantasy points per dropback (ranked 18th among quarterbacks), fantasy managers were left wanting more, especially considering the quality of weapons around him.

All things considered, Lawrence’s year, on paper, wasn’t quite as bad as fantasy managers may have felt. Even amid a myriad of injuries, Lawrence managed a career-high 7.2 yards per attempt, 78.4 PFF passing grade and a 6.1% big-time throw rate while registering a career-low 12 interceptions. His biggest issue was a lack of touchdown production, throwing just 19 on the season. All things considered, Lawrence could bounce back in 2024 if fully healthy with that same treasure trove of weapons.

RB Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers

Running back Austin Ekeler wasn’t the only fantasy disappointment on the Los Angeles Chargers roster this season, but he certainly was the biggest one. Ekeler had been drafted as the overall RB2 ahead of the 2023 season, only behind Christian McCaffrey, and in most leagues, he was selected as a top-five overall pick. Unfortunately, however, Ekeler didn’t deliver as promised, following up his career-high 82.6 PFF rushing grade and back-to-back finishes as a top-two fantasy running back with just over 1,000 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns. He averaged a career-low 4.8 yards per touch and 3.7 yards per carry in the season, amounting to a finish as the RB23 in fantasy points per game. 

Of course, it’s worth noting that several factors likely contributed to the massive letdown fantasy managers experienced in 2023. First off, we should acknowledge the fact that Ekeler started the year suffering an ankle injury in Week 1 that may have rendered the rest of his season less efficient than it may have been. Ekeler averaged 7.3 yards per carry in Week 1, finishing as the overall RB2 on the week for fantasy with 164 total scrimmage yards and a touchdown on just 41 total snaps before suffering that injury and exiting the game. He went on to miss the following three games due to the injury before returning in Week 5, averaging just 3.27 yards per carry from that point on through Week 17.  Then, there’s the offensive line, whose 40.8 PFF run-blocking grade ranks 31 out of 32 teams this season. Then, of course, is the fact that Ekeler is an “aging” running back, about to hit free agency with a lot of questions about what he has left in the tank heading into what will be his age-29 season.

All of these things considered, don’t be surprised if fantasy managers overcorrect following their disappointment in 2023 and Ekeler ends up being a decent value in 2024 fantasy football leagues.

RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans

Heading into the 2023 season, it seemed likely that Houston Texans second-year running back Dameon Pierce would be in for a big season. Though his season ended prematurely due to a season-ending ankle injury, Pierce’s start to his career looked incredibly promising from the jump despite his position in an offense that ranked bottom three in both yards and points in 2023. Among running backs with 100 or more carries in 2022, Pierce ranked top-12 with an 84.8 PFF rushing grade and 3.28 yards after contact per attempt while leading the league with a 28% missed forced tackle rate. Unfortunately, however, none of that success he found translated into 2023.

After being drafted on average as the RB15, Pierce averaged just 5.76 fantasy points per game (half-PPR), which would rank as the overall RB54 in points per game. Among running backs with 100 or more rush attempts, Pierce’s 64.9 PFF rushing grade ranked fourth-lowest among running backs, ranked dead last in that cohort averaging just 0.49 fantasy points per touch and 2.9 yards per carry. Though Pierce wasn’t fully healthy this season, as he’s been so significantly outplayed by 2023 free agent signing Devin Singletary paired with his fourth-round draft capital makes it such that it seems reasonable that the team could explore other options in 2024, either via free agency or the NFL draft.