• RB Latavius Murray — over 25.5 rushing yards: The choice to go with a Latavius Murray overs bet is because Murray does not necessarily need the explosive plays to cover a line in this range, even if Vita Vea were to play.
• WR Khalil Shakir Anytime TD: A long shot, but there is big upside to these plays, given the exceptional matchup tonight. These numbers are just too big.
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Estimated reading time: 3 minutes
GAME OVERVIEW
The Buffalo Bills are having an incredibly high-variance year, and it is tough to know exactly which offense will turn up on Thursday night.
Josh Allen and company produced three of the most explosive offensive performances of the season in back-to-back games against the Las Vegas Raiders, Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins. They have also stuttered their way through their last three games, looking terrible against teams they were expected to dominate and notably losing their last contest in a two-minute drill drive from the struggling Mac Jones.
On the other hand, Tampa Bay has overperformed expectations, as they were widely regarded as the league's worst team coming into the season. They had the lowest win total and longest Super Bowl odds of any team, but they’ve come out on top in several close, low-scoring games and enter this clash with a 3-3 record.
Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield has produced decent enough numbers, with star wide receiver Mike Evans stepping up for his signal-caller. However, the Bucs’ run game continues to be one of the worst in the league, with only the Raiders generating fewer schedule-adjusted yards per carry.
There are not too many injury concerns ahead of this one, but Vita Vea is a big question mark for the Bucs. He is currently a game-time decision, having not practiced all week, and that opens the door for Buffalo to generate some rushing offense against an otherwise stout run defense.
Vita Vea is the beating heart of that defensive front and has helped Tampa Bay to a top-10 adjusted run defense. With him potentially missing, they will look to Greg Gaines at nose tackle, which would mean the Bucs fielding three interior defenders with a PFF grade in the 40s — not an ideal situation against this offense.
Latavius Murray Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-113 FanDuel) & Latavius Murray Anytime TD (+285 Caesars)
The discrepancy between James Cook‘s and Latavius Murray‘s lines is due to the difference in explosiveness between the two players, but they have split snaps at almost a 50/50 rate the last two weeks. And with Vita Vea a potential question mark, there is an opportunity for both backs to be more involved.
The choice to go with a Latavius Murray overs bet is because Murray does not necessarily need the explosive plays to cover a line in this range, even if Vea were to play. The Bills trailed the Patriots by multiple scores for most of the afternoon last week, which limited Murray to just four carries and 45% of the offensive snaps. In a much closer game the week before, he got 12 carries and played 49% of the snaps.
The Bills should control this game and, at the very least, keep it close enough to get Murray more touches.
Murray is also option 1A in the red zone, as he has played 17 red-zone snaps to James Cook’s eight and taken six red-zone carries to Cook’s four.
With the difference between Cook's (+140) and Murray's (+285) touchdown pricing, little thinking is needed to realize the expected value in taking the number on Latavius Murray.
Khalil Shakir Anytime TD (+800 Caesars), First TD (+3500 Caesars) & Most Receiving Yards (+4700 FanDuel)
A few fliers! There is not much outlay here, but these plays have big upside, given the exceptional matchup tonight. These numbers are just too big.
Khalil Shakir is seeing more playing time this year, and while his opportunity to date has been relatively low, he has an excellent matchup against Bucs slot corner Christian Izien. Tampa Bay is giving up the fifth-most yards per route run to opposing slot receivers, while recent Bills opponents in the New England Patriots and New York Giants have been incredibly stingy against slot receivers so far.
His opportunity with increased playing time has not been as great as it will be today.
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