• Tee Higgins set for a breakout? Higgins has started to get back on track over the last two games, totaling 179 yards on 13 catches. Against a secondary with a bunch of injuries, look for Higgins to have his best game of the season.
• Patriots +1.5 in Germany: The Colts are the better team, but Bill Belichick has always had success against the Colts, no matter who is at quarterback. Plus, it’s still hard to trust Gardner Minshew against a Belichick-led defense.
• Get ahead of the game: PFF's Best Bets Tool uses PFF data to uncover the biggest edges in the betting market. Click here to see the best bets for this week.
Estimated reading time: 10 minutes
Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) vs. New England Patriots
Matchup to watch: Colts RT Blake Freeland vs. Patriots EDGE Keion White
We will see a ton of rookie-on-rookie action in this matchup, with Freeland set to block White on the right side. Freeland has not allowed a sack in the past two games but has surrendered 10 hurries. White is still looking for his first sack of his career, and this is a matchup that should favor him quite a bit on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Colts WR Alec Pierce
Josh Downs was having an excellent rookie season until he suffered a knee injury in Week 9 against the Panthers. While it isn’t expected to keep him out long-term, he will likely miss this meeting against the Patriots. That opens the door for Pierce, who has just 17 catches in nine games for the Colts. He is a big, athletic receiver who should see more opportunities with Downs out this week.
Favorite bet: Patriots +1.5
The Colts are the better team, but Bill Belichick has always had success against the Colts, no matter who is at quarterback. Plus, it’s still hard to trust Gardner Minshew against a Belichick-led defense. Take the Patriots as slight underdogs this week and expect them to get the win on foreign soil on Sunday morning.
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Matchup to watch: Texans LT Laremy Tunsil vs. Bengals EDGE Trey Hendrickson
One of the best matchups of the weekend will be Tunsil against Hendrickson. Tunsil is healthy again and is back to playing like one of the top tackles in the league. He has a pass-block grade of 82.6, sixth-highest among all tackles. He'll see a ton of Hendrickson on Sunday, who continues to get better with age. Hendrickson has earned a pass-rush grade of 91.2 on the season, fourth best in the NFL. This is best-on-best for both sides and will be a joy to watch in Week 10.
Fantasy breakout: Bengals WR Tee Higgins
The status of Ja’Marr Chase is unknown for Week 10 after suffering a back injury against the Bills. Even if he does manage to play, look for the Bengals to lean heavily on Tee Higgins in the passing game. Higgins has started to get back on track over the last two games, totaling 179 yards on 13 catches. Against a secondary with a bunch of injuries, look for Higgins to have his best game of the season.
Favorite bet: Texans +7
The Texans have a franchise quarterback, an improving offensive line and a lot of weapons on offense. Yes, the Bengals are playing fantastic football right now, but don’t count out Houston on Sunday. Take them +7 and expect a very close game in Cincinnati.
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Minnesota Vikings
Matchup to watch: Vikings WR Jordan Addison vs. Saints CB Paulson Adebo
Adebo is amid a breakout season, winning the NFC Defensive Player of the Week award in Week 9. He is the No. 3 graded cornerback in the NFL (86.2), but he'll have a tough assignment in Week 10 against Addison. Can Joshua Dobbs get him the ball consistently? That remains to be seen, but this should be an outstanding battle on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Saints WR Chris Olave
After a rough stretch, the Saints have done a better job getting Chris Olave involved in the offense. Olave has racked up 42 targets and 25 receptions in the last four games. While that hasn't resulted in big yardage totals, bigger games are coming. And against a weak secondary, Olave should have his biggest game of the season in Week 10.
Favorite bet: Saints -2.5
Dobbs and the Vikings were one of the best stories of Week 9. But now that the Saints have a chance to prepare for Dobbs, don't expect quite as much success for Minnesota on offense. Take the Saints to win and cover on the road in Week 10.
Green Bay Packers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)
Matchup to watch: Steelers WR Diontae Johnson vs. Packers CB Jaire Alexander
In the three games since returning from his hamstring injury, Johnson has seen 29 targets. He is back to being the No. 1 receiver in the offense but will have his toughest matchup yet of the season in Week 10. Alexander is one of the top cornerbacks in the league and can match Johnson’s quickness. Expect the Packers to have Alexander follow Johnson all over the field in this matchup.
Fantasy breakout: Steelers WR George Pickens
Pickens had just one catch in the team's Week 9 win over the Titans and voiced his frustration on the sideline and social media. This feels like a “squeaky wheel gets the grease” game for Pickens, especially against a secondary that just traded away Rasul Douglas. Look for Kenny Pickett to take multiple shots down the field to Pickens on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Steelers -3
The Steelers are at home on 10 days rest and are only giving three points. Their defense should be able to win this game themselves against one of the worst offenses in the league. Take Mike Tomlin and the Steelers with confidence on Sunday.
Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1)
Matchup to watch: Titans LT Andre Dillard vs. Buccaneers EDGE Shaquil Barrett
The Titans signed Dillard to a big deal in free agency this offseason, which has yet to pay dividends. He's already been benched once this season and allowed seven pressures against the Steelers in Week 9. He’ll face one of the better edge rushers in the league on Sunday in Shaq Barrett, who still has some juice left at nearly 31 years old.
Fantasy breakout: Titans TE Chigoziem Okonkwo
Okonkwo was a sleeper tight end for a lot of people this offseason, but he just hasn’t made much of an impact. He has yet to score a touchdown this season and hasn’t exceeded 35 receiving yards in any game this year. However, he’ll face a defense that just got torched by Dalton Schultz in Week 9. If Okonkwo were ever to break out, this is the game to do it.
Favorite bet: Buccaneers -1
The Titans were competitive in Week 9 against the Steelers, but their offense is still a bit clunky, and their defense doesn't have the horsepower to win them games. The Buccaneers have also struggled on defense, but their offense is playing much better as of late. Take the Buccaneers to win and cover at home in Week 10.
San Francisco 49ers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Matchup to watch: Jaguars LT Cam Robinson vs. 49ers EDGE Chase Young
After acquiring Young at the trade deadline, he’ll finally suit up for the 49ers on Sunday. He’ll be part of a rotation at defensive end, but you can bet that he’ll play 25-plus snaps against the Jaguars. Look for Young to line up on the left side and face Robinson, the NFL's No. 2 graded pass-blocking offensive tackle (85.2) this season. This will be a fantastic test for Young in his first game with his new team.
Fantasy breakout: Jaguars WR Christian Kirk
The 49ers have had major issues covering slot receivers all season, and that likely won't change in Week 10. With Trevor Lawrence expected to be under heavy pressure all game, look for him to get rid of the ball to his top receiver. Kirk has been highly efficient this season, catching nearly 72% of his targets. Look for him to see double-digit targets on Sunday against the 49ers.
Favorite bet: 49ers -3
The 49ers are coming off their bye week (as are the Jaguars), and it couldn’t have come at a better time. They’ve had several key players miss time with injuries but will be at full strength in Week 10. After three straight losses, look for the 49ers to get back on track and get a win against a very good Jaguars team on the road.
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
Matchup to watch: Ravens LT Ronnie Stanley vs. Browns EDGE Myles Garrett
Garrett is having the best season of his career now that Jim Schwartz is coaching him. He's started to separate himself from the other top edge rushers in the league. But the Browns will need him to have a huge game in order to have a chance on Sunday. Cleveland will undoubtedly move him around, but look for Stanley to see a heavy dose of Garrett on Sunday.
Fantasy breakout: Ravens WR Zay Flowers
Flowers was held in check against the Seahawks in Week 9, catching just one pass. But the Browns will likely be without their top slot cornerback, Greg Newsome, on Sunday. Flowers is still the most trusted wide receiver in this passing attack, and look for Lamar Jackson to give him plenty of shots down the field in Week 10.
Favorite bet: Over 37.5
The Browns and Ravens have two of the best defenses in the NFL. They are loaded with talent, and both squads have elite defensive coordinators calling plays. But 37.5 points is an insane number. Take the over here, as both offenses should be able to find a way to score 20-plus points on Sunday.
Atlanta Falcons (-1) at Arizona Cardinals
Matchup to watch: Cardinals WR Marquise Brown vs. Falcons CB A.J. Terrell
Brown has put together a nice season despite all of the ups and downs from his quarterbacks. But with Kyler Murray back, he should see a big bump in efficiency. It won't be easy for Brown on Sunday, as he'll face one of the top man-to-man cornerbacks in the league.
Fantasy breakout: Cardinals QB Kyler Murray
It's usually not wise to start players in their first game back from an injury, especially one who has missed an entire year. But the Falcons can't stop anyone on defense and allowed Joshua Dobbs to have a career day. Look for Murray to use his legs in this game and produce a QB1 performance in his first start. He's had multiple weeks of practice to prepare for this game, so look for him to play well right out of the gate.
Favorite bet: Falcons -1
It's quite a shock to see the Falcons only favored by one point here, especially considering the Cardinals' losing streak. But with Murray back in the lineup, this game is expected to be much closer. Still, take the Falcons to bounce back and get a win to stay alive in the NFC South playoff hunt. This might be a win-or-go-home game for Arthur Smith on Sunday.
Detroit Lions (-1.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Matchup to watch: Lions LT Taylor Decker vs. Chargers EDGE Khalil Mack
It’s been a treat to watch Khalil Mack play at an elite level again. He already has nine sacks, the most he's had in a single season since 2020. Mack will have a tough assignment on Sunday, going up against Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. This is a fantastic matchup between one of the best edge duos and the top tackle pairing in the NFL.
Fantasy breakout: Lions TE Sam LaPorta
You would think the Chargers would be one of the best teams at stopping tight ends due to Derwin James, but that hasn't been the case over the last several years. Their linebackers struggle in coverage, especially in man-to-man coverage. Look for Jared Goff to target Sam LaPorta early and often. It wouldn't be a surprise to see him earn 10-plus targets and multiple end-zone looks on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Lions -1.5
The Lions are the better team and have a significant rest advantage heading into Week 10. They were on bye in Week 9, while the Chargers played on the road against the Jets on Monday Night Football. The Lions should be able to control the line of scrimmage in this game. Take the Lions here despite playing on the road.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-16)
Matchup to watch: Giants LT Andrew Thomas vs. Cowboys EDGE Micah Parsons
Thomas is finally healthy and back to being one of the NFL's best left tackles. He'll have a tough assignment on Sunday, taking on Micah Parsons. The Cowboys will undoubtedly move Parsons around the line to get him in favorable matchups, but expect these two titans to see plenty of one another in Week 10.
Fantasy breakout: Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks
Cooks was held to just one catch on Sunday despite Dak Prescott throwing for 373 yards against the Eagles. But against the Giants, this should be a bounce-back performance, especially if Adoree' Jackson (concussion) can’t go. Look for the Cowboys to finally take some shots down the field to Cooks in this matchup.
Favorite bet: Over 39
The Cowboys are averaging 37 points per game at home this season, and the Giants might not put up much of a fight on that side of the ball. The Giants will struggle to sustain drives on offense, but they should be able to score enough to allow the over to hit in Arlington on Sunday.
Washington Commanders at Seattle Seahawks (-6)
Matchup to watch: Commanders RT Andrew Wylie vs. Seahawks EDGE Boye Mafe
The Seahawks have a rising star with Boye Mafe, who has now recorded a sack in six straight games. He'll face one of the better right tackles in the league in Wylie on Sunday, but this matchup favors Seattle. Look for Maye to extend his sack streak against the team that has allowed the most sacks this season.
Fantasy breakout: Commanders WR Terry McLaurin
Devon Witherspoon plays primarily in the slot, so he'll see a lot of Jamison Crowder or Curtis Samuel. This leaves McLaurin on the outside against Tariq Woolen, who has had a sophomore slump. McLaurin's speed and route running should allow him to get open a ton in this game. Look for the Commanders to target him early and often on Sunday.
Favorite bet: Commanders +6
The Commanders have been frisky this year, especially with their improved passing attack. Sam Howell takes far too many sacks, but he throws the ball down the field a ton and does so efficiently. Seattle's offense is still a work in progress, and that should allow Washington to hang around, even with this game on the road.
New York Jets (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
Matchup to watch: Raiders WR Davante Adams vs. Jets CB Sauce Gardner
The Raiders will move Adams all over the field, so don't expect him to be exclusively matched against Gardner. But this is a battle that the Raiders will want to avoid, especially with a rookie quarterback. The Jets have a fantastic secondary but expect plenty of one-on-one matchups between Adams and Gardner on Sunday Night Football.
Fantasy breakout: Jets RB Breece Hall
It’s been tough sledding for Hall over the last three weeks, totaling just 106 rushing yards on 40 carries (2.65 yards per attempt). But the Raiders present the perfect get-right game for Hall. They just allowed Saquon Barkley to average 5.6 yards per carry, and the Raiders are beat up at the linebacker position. Look for the Jets to lean on Hall in this game and for him to have potentially his best performance of the season in Las Vegas.
Favorite bet: Jets -1.5
The Jets scored only 6 points against the Chargers on Monday Night Football. But they were a -3 in the turnover department and allowed a punt return for a touchdown. Against a rookie quarterback making just his second start of his career, look for the Jets to rattle Aidan O’Connell and find a way to win on the road in Week 10.
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-7.5)
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II
There might not be a better matchup all week than Diggs vs. Surtain. Both players have improved as the year has gone on. Can Surtain manage to keep Diggs in check? Will the Bills move Diggs around to avoid Surtain? It should be fascinating to watch on Monday Night Football.
Fantasy breakout: Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy
Injuries have decimated the Bills' secondary, forcing them to make a trade (Rasul Douglas) and sign older veterans (Josh Norman) to get by. This is a big opportunity for Jeudy, who had a nice game against the Chiefs in Week 8. Look for him to get plenty of targets against this older secondary on Monday night.
Favorite bet: Broncos +7.5
The Bills will probably win this game, especially with it being at home in a prime-time spot. However, there is no way that Buffalo should be more than a touchdown favorite against anyone right now. The Broncos will have had 15 days to prepare for this game, and their defense has played much better over the last month. Look for them to keep this game close and cover the 7.5-point spread.
© 2024 PFF - all rights reserved.