• Bet on Lamar Jackson to keep chugging (over 57.5 rushing yards) in the ground game: Kansas City’s run defense struggles against quarterbacks, finishing 26th in EPA per rush allowed and 28th in success rate allowed on zone-read and designed quarterback rushes.
• Bet on the 49ers to lean on Christian McCaffrey (over 33.5 receiving yards) once more: McCaffrey ranks first among all running backs in PFF receiving grade, and Detroit's linebackers fare poorly in coverage.
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Estimated Reading Time: 3 minutes
If you are betting on NFL spreads, it's best to do it early. After reviewing each line on the PFF Forecast Podcast, here are our favorite early bets to make before the market catches on and lines move ahead of the NFL playoffs' conference championship games.
We went 39-30-4 last year and are sitting at 30-26 (+2.4) this season.
Make sure you don’t miss anything by joining in on the action with the PFF Betting Discord. And if you are wondering why we bet early, here is a great primer.
QB Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards
• The Chiefs' run defense has been a problem all season, in particular against runs off tackle or outside the tackles, where Kansas City ranks dead last in expected points added per rush allowed and 31st in success rate allowed. The Ravens lead the NFL in rushing attempts off tackle or outside the tackles.
• Kansas City’s run defense also struggles against quarterbacks, finishing 26th in EPA per rush allowed and 28th in success rate allowed on zone-read and designed quarterback rushes.
• Lamar Jackson’s 5.9 yards per carry on runs off tackle or outside the tackles ranked fourth in the NFL this season among 70 players with at least 25 such attempts. Jackson also led the league in scrambles and forced the most missed tackles on scrambles.
RB Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers: OVER 33.5 Receiving Yards
• Without Deebo Samuel in the lineup for two games this season, McCaffrey went for 51 and 64 receiving yards. Samuel is dealing with a reaggravation to the same shoulder injury that sidelined him earlier in the season, and even if he were to play, it would stand to reason that the 49ers would look to feature McCaffrey in the passing game.
• Why would they do that, you ask? Well, the Lions' linebackers are not great in coverage. While McCaffrey ranks first among all running backs in PFF receiving grade, Jack Campbell ranks 78th of 79 in PFF coverage grade, Derrick Barnes places 69th and Alex Anzalone ranks 31st — although he struggled this past week.
• The Lions have been strong against the run this year, which should also point to San Francisco getting Brock Purdy back into form without rain in the forecast.
RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions: OVER 44.5 Rushing Yards
• The Packers somewhat exposed the 49ers' run defense, and it highlighted a weakness that hadn't truly cropped up until the playoffs. In the regular season, San Francisco's run defense ranked 26th in expected points added per play allowed and 24th in rushing success rate allowed. However, this was never an issue because they were always playing from ahead.
• Jahmyr Gibbs is the better back between him and David Montgomery, and this is the game to finally unleash him. We saw how Aaron Jones generated explosive runs against this defense, and Gibbs has a similar big-play ability. The Lions also have an offensive line to neutralize the 49ers at their strength, as Penei Sewell is the highest-graded tackle in the league and should be able to handle Nick Bosa off the edge.
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