College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 12 Bets — spread, total & moneyline | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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College Football Betting 2021: Best late Week 12 Bets — spread, total & moneyline

Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns quarterback Casey Thompson (11) throws during the first quarter against the TCU Horned Frogs at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

It is officially Week 12 of the 2021 college football season, which means we only have two full slates of college football left.

But before we get to Thanksgiving weekend and the conference championships, Week 12 offers several matchups with College Football Playoff implications, including No. 2 Alabama (-20.5) vs. No. 21 Arkansas and No. 3 Oregon vs. No. 23 Utah (-3).

My Week 11 picks went 4-1, bringing my year-to-date record to 37-35 for +5.12 units. Here are more spread, total, and moneyline picks for Week 11. All lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

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Texas vs. West Virginia (under 56.5)

Tale of the Tape

This Texas Longhorns team began the season 4-1 but has now lost five straight, including an inexplicable loss to Kansas.

Steve Sarkisian’s first year as Longhorns head coach has been an unmitigated disaster. There’s a slim chance for bowl eligibility, but star running back Bijan Robinson (86.7 PFF grade) is out for the remainder of the season with an elbow injury, and Sarkisian continues to play quarterback roulette between Casey Thompson and Hudson Card. With West Virginia next up, freshman receiver Xavier Worthy is the only notable name left on the offense.

Fans of competent offensive play might be best advised to steer clear of this one. Since Week 6, West Virginia ranks eighth in the Big 12 in expected points added (EPA) per play at -0.053. Over that same time, Texas is last in the conference at -0.130 EPA per play.

Implied Value Under Over
Cover probability 54.2% 45.8%
Break-even 52.4% 52.4%
Value 1.8% -6.6%
Matchup to Watch: Texas QB CASEY THOMPSON vs. West Virginia QB JARRET DOEGE

Thompson's 76.9 PFF passing grade ranks 10th among the 16 Big 12 quarterbacks who have dropped back to pass at least 60 times this season, while Doege's mark of 68.4 ranks 14th.

Simply put, the quarterback play has been inconsistent for both programs this season. Although Thompson leads all Big 12 passers in passing touchdowns with 23, his 3.6% turnover-worthy play is tied for ninth in the conference. Meanwhile, Doege ranks fourth among Big 12 passers in turnover-worthy play rate (2.3%) but has averaged only 7.5 yards per pass attempt and has taken a sack on 23.1% of his pressured dropbacks, both of which rank 12th.

X-Factor: Texas RB ROSCHON JOHNSON

The Longhorns’ three highest-graded players on offense happen to be running backs in Bijan Robinson, Jonathon Brooks and Johnson. But Robinson is out for the year, and Brooks’ status is still up in the air.

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