The Dallas Cowboys have been one of the most confusing teams to figure out, as they have had three close losses to good teams. A blowout victory over the St. Louis Rams made it look like they might be a very good team, but then again they were blown out by the Eagles. A few weeks back, it looked like the Seattle Seahawks were getting things together by keeping up with the Atlanta Falcons and beating the New York Giants, but then again they put up three points against the Cleveland Browns and lost badly to the Cincinnati Bengals.
What it all boils down to is that both teams have a losing record as they near the half-way point to their seasons, and the playoffs look very distant. Public perception is that the Cowboys have the better team, but there are a number of areas where Seattle has the advantage and could keep this close.
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1) Stopping DeMarco Murray
Over the past two weeks, we’ve seen DeMarco Murray (+4.0 rushing) run the ball 33 times for 327 yards, with 145 coming after contact, and has had five players miss tackles on him. It’s rare for a runner to average 10 yards per carry on a small sample size; let alone two games. He has basically been inexorable against two of the worst run defenses in the league.
This week, Murray goes up against Seattle’s run defense which is our top ranked unit. Last week, I noted how they had only allowed teams to rush for 3.13 yards per carry, and last week against the Bengals they allowed just 3.4 yards per carry. Every single player who is on the active roster and has played at least 30 snaps has a run defense rating above +1.0 which is absolutely outstanding. While the Seahawks/Cowboys matchup doesn’t sound as sexy as you would like, this is a classic example of the unstoppable force vs. the immovable object.
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2) Cowboys Wide Receivers vs. Seahawks Cornerbacks
The Cowboys have a trio of receivers that have played some nice football so far. While everyone knows that Dez Bryant (+3.8 receiving) and Miles Austin (+2.3 receiving) are great, the former Ram, Laurent Robinson (+2.7 receiving), has looked much better with a star on the side of his helmet. While he’s had a few drops that have hurt him, he’s caught a high percentage of balls thrown his way with 67.9% for a high amount of yards per catch with 17.7. Twice he’s had 100 yard games, which is two more than he had in his two years with St. Louis. Throw in Jason Witten (+3.6 receiving), and that leads to a very dangerous passing attack.
At the beginning of the year, the Seahawks had Marcus Trufant, Brandon Browner (-1.1 coverage) and Walter Thurmond at cornerback. Both Trufant and Thurmond have landed on injured reserve, which leaves fifth round rookie Richard Sherman (+2.8 coverage) and recently activated Roy Lewis left to guard these great receivers. Recently they haven’t been hurt too much by their secondary as they’ve gone up against the Bengals and Browns who don’t have the passing attack Dallas has. If Tony Romo is on, these three players could have a long day.
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3) Russell Okung and James Carpenter vs. DeMarcus Ware
Over the last two years, the Seahawks have spent their first round draft picks on tackles Russell Okung (-9.0) and James Carpenter (-15.1). With seven accepted and two declined penalties; Okung hasn’t exactly lived up to being the sixth overall pick in the draft yet, but over the past two games he has allowed just three pressures and a positive run block rating. This week may be his toughest challenge yet, as DeMarcus Ware (+17.2) has been playing out of this world football. Over the past two weeks he has brought quarterbacks to the ground seven times with either hits or sacks, and has at least four overall pressures in each game. If he doesn’t find much success against Okung, he can just move to attacking the right tackle which he does a handful of snaps each game. There he will find the rookie Carpenter who has allowed at least one sack in each of the past three games, and has allowed someone to bring his quarterback to the ground 14 times this year. Expect yet another big game out of Ware.
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