The Latest NFC East showdown finds the 4-9 Washington Redskins going on the road to take on the 7-6 New York Giants. Different year, same story for these two squads: the Redskins are out of playoff contention with three games left, while the Giants still have a shot at playing in January and beyond.
The Giants are coming off a clutch victory over the divisional rival Dallas Cowboys in which Eli Manning once again led a comeback, this time from a 12-point deficit late in the fourth quarter. The Redskins are coming off a similar close, high-scoring game with the New England Patriots, but the end result was different as Rex Grossman’s red zone pass late in the fourth quarter bounced out of Santana Moss’s grasp, and into Jerod Mayo’s hands.
The Redskins haven’t had much success against Eli’s crew–winning only once against them since 2007–and their opening day 28-14 victory this season was far closer than the score suggested. Take a look at some key matchups in this very important game for the Giants.
Roy Helu vs. Giants Run Defense
The Redskins had a solid running game early in the season with Tim Hightower (+2.2 rushing grade), but after he got injured, they struggled when they gave Ryan Torain (-0.3) and Dallas castoff Tashard Choice (-0.5) carries instead of just utilizing rookie Roy Helu. In the last three weeks they seem to have realized that Helu is the best HB on their roster: he’s had 20+ carries for the first three times in his young career, gaining at least 100 yards in each, with his lowest average yards-per-carry being 4.3 and scoring twice. He’s also had some solid highlights, including his first ever TD run in the Seattle game at 9:57 in the fourth quarter where he hurdles one defender and then absorbs a hit from Kam Chancellor–one of the most violent safeties in the league–after landing on his feet before he has a clear path to the end zone.
The Giants' run defense has been suspect lately, especially last week where they let Felix Jones run for over 100 yards on 16 carries, with a big chunk of that (73 yards) coming after contact. With Kenny Phillips, who has their team’s highest coverage rating (+3.0), likely still out with injury, it will be interesting to see if the Giants are able to commit extra defenders in the box to stop this promising young player. If Grossman is able to have another good game against Big Blue (+4.7 passing grade in week 1), they most likely won’t be able to.
Giant WRs vs. Redskins Secondary
Eli’s late-game heroics aside, last week’s victory also continued to prove that the Giants have one of the best wide receiver corps in the league. Hakeem Nicks continued to be one of the hardest receivers to covering, gaining 154 yards with an average of 22 yards per catch, and even showed some strength in run blocking, neutralizing Terence Newman at 1:38 in the first quarter on a 15-yard Brandon Jacobs run. Victor Cruz and Mario Manningham (coming back from another injury) also proved difficult to stop, combing for 145 yards and a TD, but each also dropping a pass (a TD, in Manningham’s case).
The Redskins have one of the better, if not quite elite, defenses in the league, but there are some glaring weaknesses in their secondary, including DeAngelo Hall, who will certainly not be making the Pro Bowl this year. Our eight-worst-rated DB in coverage (-9.2), Hall has given up four TDs and 735 yards, not to mention dropping picks in two of the last three games. Free agent acquisition O.J. Atogwe has been solid against opposing quarterbacks (+2.7), but he curiously only played 13 snaps last week while Reed Doughty (-5.9) and rookie DeJon Gomes (-3.1) started. Meanwhile, free agent Josh Wilson (+1.6), who had a rare red zone pick of Tom Brady last week, should at least make things difficult for Eli on one side of the field.
Antrel Rolle
One of the most out-spoken and (according to more than a few) overrated players in the NFL, Antrel Rolle is our second-worst rated safety in coverage (-12.0). It was a surprise to no one when, one week after helping blow a coverage that left Donald Driver wide open in the end zone for a short TD catch, he appeared to let Dez Bryant get way behind him for a 50-yard TD. He wasn’t too great against the pass in that Week 1 loss, either, giving up all four thrown against him. Washington no doubt remembers his highly publicized post-game comments, claiming the Redskins were inferior and that they might win five games out of 100 against the Giants. Rolle did have his best games against division-winning 49ers (+3.0) and the Patriots (+0.7), but overall, his performance this season suggests that he’ll be a target of Grossman throughout the afternoon.
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