The expectations bestowed on the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers could not have been more different at the beginning of the season, but surprisingly enough they now find themselves in a similar position; as both teams are coming off of home games where they had heartbreaking losses to two of the best teams in the league. With those losses, these two NFC South rivals now find themselves on the outside looking in on the playoff race.
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For the Falcons, a win would bring them back to .500 and keep the Panthers the division’s cellar. However, if Carolina can pull off a victory it will take them a step closer to being a respectable team that could prove to be a spoiler. With that being said, Atlanta rarely losses at home, unless of course they are playing the Packers, but after taking a look at a few matchups this game might be closer than you think.
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1) Falcons LT Sam Baker vs. Panthers DE’s Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy
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Probably the biggest problem the Falcons have had this year is their offensive line’s inability to pass or run block. The biggest problem is that the Falcons are still trying to get former first round pick Sam Baker (-14.9) to work out at left tackle, but the 26 pressures he has allowed is the second most for tackles in 2011. Matt Ryan, who has a +18.0 pass rating when he is not pressured, clearly can’t operate with all that disruption in the backfield, as exemplified by his -0.5 rating under pressure.
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Unfortunately for Atlanta, the Panthers have the right players to take advantage of this weakness. Expect either Greg Hardy (+7.4 pass rush) or Charles Johnson (+3.5 pass rush) to be lined up across from Baker on basically every pass play. Seven of the team’s eight sacks this season have come from either of these two players, so any sacks that happen in this game will likely come from this matchup. Even if they can’t get to Ryan, expect the pressure to be on to rush Ryan’s throws and cause problems for the offense.
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2) Panthers QB Cam Newton vs. Falcons CB Dunta Robinson
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Rookie quarterback Cam Newton (+12.2) has been one of the most inconsistent players this season. Newton had the second best pass rating of all quarterbacks in week one, the worst in week three, the best in week four, and the worst in week five. In order for the Panthers to have any chance against the Falcons, they need the good Newton to show up. Outside of his inconsistency, what has made him unique is that over 20% of his passes have been beyond 20 yards, where he has 17 completions for 599 yards and three touchdowns.
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Expect Newton to keep up that pace against the Falcons. Over the past two weeks, they have allowed four deep passes to be complete for 184 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta has shown that they can allow big plays, and that Dunta Robinson (-10.1) will likely allow at least one of them. This season he has allowed 23 of the 28 balls thrown his way to be caught for 373 yards and two touchdowns. Both the catch rate he’s allowed and the yards per catch are worse this year compared to last.
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While the Panthers aren’t good enough to consistently rely on big pass plays to win them games, they are more likely to get some big plays in this game compared to others.
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3) Falcons TE Tony Gonzalez vs. Panthers Linebackers
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Last week, I put the Tony Gonzalez (+7.5 receiving) matchup against the Packers as one to look at and he had six catches for 60 yards. He has had a positive receiving rating in each of the first five weeks and his best game of this season could come on Sunday.
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Playing linebacker for the Panthers has been one of the unsafe jobs in the NFL. Starters Thomas Davis and Jon Beason are both out for the year, with Davis suffering from a torn ACL and Beason a torn Achilles’ tendon. On top of that, replacement Omar Gaither is out at least two weeks with a sprained MCL.
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This leaves James Williams, Dan Connor and James Anderson at linebacker; all of whom combined have allowed a combined eight catches for 101 yards last week. Each has a negative coverage rating over the course of the season, and likely won’t be able to handle arguably the best tight end in the league’s history.
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