It’s “must win” time for the Detroit Lions and Oakland Raiders. At 8-5, The Lions are in line for the final Wild Card spot in the NFC while the Raiders just lost their grasp on the AFC West and currently sit one game out of the Wild Card race in the AFC.
It was a close call for the Lions as they nearly blew a 28-7 lead last week against the Vikings, but linebacker DeAndre Levy’s sack and forced fumble on the goal line ended the rally. They'll welcome the return of defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh from his two-game suspension.
The Raiders have been downright awful the last two weeks. Quarterback Carson Palmer continues to turn the ball over and their defensive line has been handled fairly easily. Both Palmer and the line will need to improve to give the Raiders a chance to get back in the playoff hunt. With so many teams battling for the last Wild Card spot in the AFC, their best chance may be through winning the division, but they better hope that Denver Broncos’ opponents figure out a way to stop their fourth-quarter magic.
Carson Palmer vs. Lions Secondary
The Raiders mortgaged the future in order to snatch Palmer off his couch and plug him into the lineup, but they need more consistency in order to make a playoff push. After three strong starts, Palmer has really struggled in recent weeks and he is forcing some terrible throws which has led to six interceptions over the last three games. Last week, his first interception was thrown into quadruple coverage while his interception in the end zone with 0:48 to go in the first half was just a lobbed pass into triple coverage. He has looked indecisive at times, and must get back on track to give the Raiders a chance to win.
The Lions' secondary has certainly benefitted from the strong pass rush up front, but they’ve been banged up in recent weeks. Safety Louis Delmas (+4.7) and cornerback Chris Houston (+4.4) are the top coverage guys, but both have missed the last two games and have been limited in practice this week. CB Alphonso Smith did a nice job of filling in last week and CB Eric Wright had his best game of the season defending three passes and intercepting another. The Lions are pretty straightforward with their looks on defense, so we may not see Palmer throwing into crowds, but Lions secondary is more than capable of giving him a tough game.
Raiders Defensive Tackles vs. Lions Interior Line
As mentioned, the Raiders' defensive line has had their issues recently, but they remain the heart and soul of the team. It starts with perhaps the deepest defensive tackle rotation in the league, as three players are all grading positively. Starters Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly have struggled of late but they remain two of the best pass-rushing defensive tackles in the league at +10.9 and +11.3, respectively. DT John Henderson has graded highest among the group at +15.7 overall and he has been nearly unstoppable against the run as he showed at the 7:55 mark of the third quarter against the Dolphins Week 13. Henderson holds the point, splits the double team and engulfs running back Reggie Bush for no gain. Desmond Bryant, has also spent some time in his typical DT role, though he's been used mostly at right end since Matt Shaughnessy's injury removed him from the lineup. Bryant has made the best of increased playing time and is coming off three QB pressures and a sack in last week’s game.
The Lions have their issues at offensive tackle, but their interior line has done a nice job in pass protection. Right guard Stephen Peterman is ninth among guards in Pass Blocking Efficiency at 98.2, while LG Rob Sims is 14th at 97.8. Center Dominic Raiola is grading at +4.8 in pass blocking, but all three interior players are grading negatively in the run game. The Lions have used a lot of shotgun and three wide receiver sets, and they need to get more production from their running game out of those looks.
Lions Defensive Line vs. Raiders Offensive Line
There is just a plethora of defensive tackle talent in this game. Of course I mentioned the return of Ndamukong Suh, and he is always a threat to rush the passer. The Raiders will spend plenty of time thinking of ways to keep him in check, but the defensive line goes beyond just Suh. DT Corey Williams is strong against the run (+4.3) and DT Sammie Lee Hill is another solid backup (+1.6). The one commonality on the line is their penchant for picking up penalties, and even though Suh is getting some bad press for his personal fouls, he is actually third amongst the team’s defensive linemen in committed penalties behind Williams and defensive end Cliff Avril. They will all need to keep their emotions in check for the stretch run.
The Raiders' offensive line has not played particularly well and they’re in the middle of the pack in our PBE standings at 87.8. The right side in particular has struggled as RG Cooper Carlisle is grading at -12.5 and RT Khalif Barnes is at -18.2. Barnes will see a lot of Avril (+11.6 Pass Rush) and DE Willie Young who has 22 QB Disruptions on only 118 pass rushes this season. LG Stefen Wisniewski has had a solid rookie season at -2.3, and he will be tested by the Lions' deep D-line.
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