Earlier in the season, this game would have had a much different feel. The Bills were the team with playoff aspirations while Denver was closer to contending for worst team in the league honors. Since Week 8, they’ve gone in opposite directions. The Broncos have lost only to the Patriots since being blown out by Detroit that week and are 5-0 on the road with Tim Tebow starting. The Bills blanked the Redskins that week to move their record to 5-2, but seven consecutive losses have removed Buffalo from playoff contention. Every Buffalo opponent has scored at least 23 points during the streak while the reeling Bills have reached that plateau only twice.
So while Denver looks like the superior team, it’s worth remembering that the Bills would have been picked to win this game only a few months ago. The NFL is constantly evolving and just as Week 8 was a turning point for both of these teams, perhaps this game could be as well. While Buffalo has to be disappointed to miss the postseason after such a hot start, it’s important, for the sake of momentum, that they don’t go into 2012 with a nine-game losing streak.
The Broncos are in need of a bit of a rebound themselves after playing a sloppy game against the Patriots. One particularly important challenge is reducing or eliminating the offensive turnovers. They committed three against New England and the Broncos’ ball control offense simply isn’t built to win when turning the ball over. The defense needs to get back on track as well and has a good chance against a Bills team that has averaged 14.3 points over the last seven games.
Broncos’ Offensive Line vs. Bills’ Defensive Line
In cumulative rankings, the Broncos’ starting offensive line all grade drastically in the red. They find success running the ball through misdirection and keeping the defense on its toes by mixing in option-runs with traditional I-formation runs. The most important thing Broncos’ opponents must remember on defense is to keep containment. Defensive ends must work upfield and force Tim Tebow to move up in the pocket rather than out of the pocket. So do the Bills have the discipline to contain the Broncos’ rushing attack, or will they expose themselves to the threat of a scrambling Tebow?
Spencer Johnson (-6.2) and Alex Carrington (-5.1) will be responsible for keeping Tebow from being able to roll out. Their 31 combined defensive stops are eight less than Jared Allen’s total by himself. When the Broncos run up the middle, they could have some success attacking Dwan Edwards (-13.5) who hasn’t graded in the green in run defense all season. Marcell Dareus (+11.3) has been a wildly unpredictable player so far in his career but he could be a factor in the run game and pass rush if he’s in top form against one of the weakest interiors in the league. J.D. Walton (-24.7) grades out as the worst starter at OC in the league and Zane Beadles (-19.1) hasn’t been much better next to him.
Broncos’ Defensive Backs vs. Bills’ Wide Receivers
After seeing the Patriots’ passing game overwhelm the Broncos last week, the Bills may be encouraged to focus on exploiting those same weaknesses. They probably won’t have the advantage of playing against two rookie safeties as the Patriots did, with Brian Dawkins (+2.1) expected to be ready to play. If Dawkins plays and Quinton Carter (-10.7) moves back to free safety, the Bills may want to abandon their dink-and-dunk offense for a few deep shots throughout the game. Carter has shown talent, but hasn’t had great results in coverage with only one pass breakup and a 73% completion percentage.
Steve Johnson (+6.0) is the Bills’ most dangerous receiver and may warrant a shadow from Champ Bailey (+4.5). Bailey isn’t always used in that manner but with Johnson being so much more talented than the rest of the Bills receivers, it’s possible in this case. If so, Buffalo will need David Nelson and Brad Smith to make plays against the softer coverage of Andre Goodman (-8.9). Slot cornerback Chris Harris (+4.9) might be a little more of a challenge to exploit.
A look at the Running Backs
Against one of the weaker run defense units in the league, the Broncos could use the services of Willis McGahee (+6.1) this week. He appears ready for feature-back duty after being limited against the Patriots. A healthy McGahee is a boon for the Broncos offense because he’s by far their premier runner inside the tackles. Lance Ball is an effective third down back and has a wide-range skill set, but McGahee is the power runner Denver needs taking the majority of the carries. His 582 yards after contact ranks 12th in the league.
On the other sideline, C.J. Spiller (+9.6) is starting to emerge with two great games in his last three. He looked like the Bills’ best offensive player last week with nine receptions, nearly 170 total yards, and two touchdowns. While no NFL rusher has touched the 3.7 yards after contact per attempt average Fred Jackson maintained pre-injury, Spiller’s 3.0 puts him at 8th in the league. Chan Gailey doesn’t sound likely to increase Spiller’s workload much anytime soon, but we’d like to see if Spiller’s smaller frame can keep up the pace with more touches.
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