· Bet Stefon Diggs anytime TD (-105 DraftKings) at Ravens: Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards (842) and five receiving TDs to WRs; Diggs has NFL's fourth-most targets in red zone.
· Bet Browns RB Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+150 DK) vs. Falcons: Nick Chubb is RB1, but he and Hunt each have 11 carries in red zone.
• New users who bet $10 or more at BetMGM will receive a free year’s subscription to PFF+ — a $79.99 value.
Estimated reading time: 3 min
In Week 3, nine games finished with 40 or fewer total points. Hopefully, Week 4 brings us more offensive fireworks. Over at BetMGM, there are six games with totals set at 45 or more.
Let's see if we can exploit some of these matchups and find some guys that will find themselves in the end zone.
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (43)
Bet: Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. Anytime TD (+120 DraftKings)
· Matt Ryan and the Colts may have finally figured things out and turned the corner. After struggling early on against the Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars, they pulled off an ultimate upset by topping the Chiefs, 20-17.
· In the win over Kansas City, Michael Pittman was targeted nine times, hauling in eight catches for 72 yards.
· This week, Pittman gets a great matchup against the division foe Titans. So far in 2022, the Titans have given up the fourth-most receiving yards (614) and the most receiving TDs (6) to opposing receivers.
Buffalo Bills (-3) @ Baltimore Ravens (51)
Bet: Bills WR Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (-105 DraftKings)
· Stefon Diggs already has four TD grabs in 2022. After being shut out in Buffalo's Week 3 loss to the Miami Dolphins, we expect both the Bills and Diggs to bounce back.
· Baltimore has allowed the most passing yards in the NFL (842) and five receiving touchdowns to opposing WRs, tied for second-most. On the other side of the ball, Josh Allen led the league in passing yards entering Week 4 and is second with 9 passing touchdowns.
· Not only can Diggs beat teams deep, he also wins in the short and intermediate parts of the field. Diggs has the NFL's fourth-most red zone targets, including four catches and two touchdowns.
Cleveland Browns (-1) @ Atlanta Falcons (47.5)
Bet: Browns RB Kareem Hunt Anytime TD (+150 DraftKings)
· Kareem Hunt started the season hot, accumulating 70 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in Week 1. Since then, he has been held out of the end zone in back-to-back weeks.
· This week, Hunt faces a Falcons defense that ranks in the bottom half of the league vs. the run and pass, which bodes well for the multi-faceted back.
· The Browns' offense ranks 2nd in the NFL in Score%, as 48.4% of their drives end in an offensive score. We all know Nick Chubb is the RB1, but both he and Hunt have the same amount of red-zone carries (11), while Hunt also has seen two red zone targets in the passing game.
Bet: Browns TE David Njoku Anytime TD (+195 DraftKings)
· Atlanta has also allowed the fourth-most receptions (19) and third-highest catch rate (79.2%) to opposing tight ends.
· David Njoku had a breakout game last week, hauling nine catches on 10 targets for 89 yards and one touchdown. He has the NFL's fourth-most targets in the red zone among tight ends, only behind Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews.
Kansas City Chiefs (-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (45.5)
Bet: Chiefs TE Travis Kelce Anytime TD
· Betting Travis Kelce to find the end zone weekly is not a bad strategy. Kelce remains the best tight end in the game and Patrick Mahomes' favorite target. Kelce leads the Chiefs in targets and receptions and has found the end zone twice in three games in 2022.
· In the red zone, Mahomes locks on Kelce. So far in 2022, Kelce has seven targets in the red zone — second among NFL tight ends and five more than any other Chiefs player.
· Using our TE Matchup tool, Kelce has the second-best matchup of Week 4. Kelce should see a lot of Devin White, who has posted a PFF defensive grade of 53.4 and a coverage grade of 63.
Kurt Blakeway is 2-3 overall for the 2022 season (-2.3 units). Anytime TD prop bets went 4-9 in Week 3, bringing the season mark to 13-15 (+6.58 units).
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