NFL Draft News & Analysis

2023 NFL Draft Order: Houston Texans in prime position to take Alabama QB Bryce Young, Green Bay Packers hold top-10 pick

Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders coach Josh McDaniels (left) and quarterback Derek Carr (4) celebrate after the game against the New England Patriots at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2022 NFL past its midway point, PFF takes a look at how the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft is stacking up.

We've also highlighted each team's remaining strength of schedule (1 is hardest, 32 is easiest), projected win total and playoff probability, courtesy of the NFL Power Rankings tool.

Team Record Remaining SoS Projected win total Playoff prob.
1. Houston Texans 1-9-1 5 3.0 0%
2. Chicago Bears 3-9 7 4.5 0%
3. Detroit Lions
(via LAR)
3-8 31 6.7 8%
4. Seattle Seahawks
(via DEN)
3-8 14 8.8 55%
5. Carolina Panthers 4-8 25 6.0 8%
6. Philadelphia Eagles
(via NO)
10-1 21 13.9 100%
7. Arizona Cardinals 4-8 9 6.4 2%
8. Green Bay Packers 4-8 30 6.8 6%
9. Las Vegas Raiders 4-7 8 6.8 5%
10. Houston Texans
(via CLV)
4-7 5 3.0 0%
11. Jacksonville Jaguars 4-7 10 6.5 7%
12. Pittsburgh Steelers 4-7 20 6.9 4%
13. Detroit Lions 4-7 31 6.7 8%
14. Indianapolis Colts 4-7-1 23 6.9 3%
15. Atlanta Falcons 5-7 16 7.0 15%
16. Seattle Seahawks 6-5 14 8.8 55%
17. Los Angeles Chargers 6-5 15 8.9 42%
18. New England Patriots 6-5 3 8.4 32%
Wild-card round
19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5-6 24 8.5 75%
20. Washington Commanders 7-5 12 9.4 69%
21. Baltimore Ravens 7-4 26 10.6 85%
22. New York Jets 7-4 10 9.6 58%
23. Cincinnati Bengals 7-4 1 10.3 77%
24. New York Giants 7-4 6 9.3 56%
Divisional round
25. Denver Broncos
(via SF)
3-8 2 5.2 0%
26. Tennessee Titans 7-4 27 10.6 95%
27. Dallas Cowboys 8-3 22 11.8 99%
28. Buffalo Bills 8-3 13 12.2 97%
Conference championships
29. Miami Dolphins 8-3 4 11.1 90%
30. Minnesota Vikings 9-2 32 12.7 100%
Super Bowl
31. Kansas City Chiefs 9-2 29 13.5 100%
32. Philadelphia Eagles 10-1 21 13.9 100%

** Miami has forfeited the 24th overall pick

CLICK HERE TO VIEW PFF's 2023 NFL DRAFT BOARD

 

Houston Texans in line to take QB Bryce YoungEven without the two top-50 picks he had at receiver a season ago, Young is still the second-highest-graded passer in the Power Five (90.1).

He’s come up big in crunch time on multiple occasions and shown the “it” factor it takes to succeed in the NFL. The scary thing is that his stats should look even better, but he’s suffered an 8.1% drop rate from his receivers this year. His size could scare teams off in a talented quarterback class, but it’s about the only knock on his game.

T.J. Watt and Will Anderson Jr. in Pittsburgh? You won’t find many 243-pound edge rushers who come with no concerns about their size. And that’s just how powerful and explosive Anderson is. After leading the country in pressures as a true sophomore, Anderson has 44 so far this season as the focal point of the Bama defense.

• A new WR1 for Justin Fields and the Chicago Bears? In nine years of college grading, we have not seen a wide receiver quite like Quentin Johnston. At a rangy 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, he is a terror with the ball in his hands. His broken-tackle rate over his career is unlike anything we’ve graded, with 41 forced missed tackles on 97 career receptions. That’s what you’d expect from a receiver with a running back-esque build like Deebo Samuel, not a pterodactyl like Johnston.

Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd and…TE Michael Mayer? Mayer looks like one of the safest picks in the draft. Not only is he the focal point of Notre Dame's offense — he has 51 catches for 624 yards and seven scores on the year — but he also works his backside off in the run game. At 6-foot-4, 265 pounds, he's built for the NFL.

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