2022 NFL playoff picture

Now that there is just one week remaining in the 2022 NFL season, it’s time to start looking forward to the playoffs.

Each week, PFF will present current and projected playoff pictures, focusing on the teams that look set and the way forward for the teams on the outside.

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-3)
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (11-4)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-8)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
6. Baltimore Ravens (10-6)
7. New England Patriots (8-8)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
2. San Francisco 49ers (12-4)
3. Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
5. Dallas Cowboys (12-4)
6. New York Giants (9-6-1)
7. Seattle Seahawks (8-8)

Playoff Projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 18

The NFC East and AFC South division races

There are two open division races in the NFL right now: the NFC East and the AFC South

Here is how the odds stack up in the NFC East:

• Philadelphia Eagles: 81%
• Dallas Cowboys: 19%

These are the odds in the AFC South:

• Jacksonville Jaguars: 65%
• Tennessee Titans: 35%

Home-field advantage

The dream of a perfect season is over for the Eagles. Still, home-field advantage is practically the highest achievable goal in the regular season anyway. Still, Jalen Hurts & Co. still have a good chance of earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC.

The following teams are most likely to finish with the best record in their respective conference:

• Philadelphia Eagles: 73%
• Kansas City Chiefs: 80%
• Buffalo Bills: 20%
• San Francisco 49ers: 22%
• Dallas Cowboys: 5%

Most likely playoff matchups

The following matchups are most likely to happen in the wild-card round:

• Giants at Vikings (happens 84% of the time)
• Cowboys at Buccaneers (81%)
• Ravens at Bengals (68%)
• Chargers at Jaguars (56%)
• Packers at 49ers (39%)

The following matchups are most likely to happen at any point in the playoffs:

• Cowboys at Buccaneers (84%)
• Giants at Vikings (84%)
• Ravens at Bengals (70%)
• Chargers at Jaguars (57%)
• Bills – Bengals (48%)
• Packers – 49ers (45%)
• Bucs – Eagles (39%)

The following matchups are most likely to happen in the conference title games:

• Chiefs – Bills (32%)
• 49ers – Eagles (23%)
• Bengals – Chiefs (22%)
• Cowboys – 49ers (11%)