Day one of the 2012 NFL Draft saw a flurry of trades and plenty of surprises. How did the first round look from a redraft perspective in the fantasy realm? Scott Spratt and I wrote down our thoughts below.
Alex:
There was little drama at the top as Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went to the Colts and Redskins respectively. Looking ahead to their rookie seasons, I would rank RGIII significantly higher than Luck for several reasons: the Redskins are a better team, Shanahan’s offense suits Griffin well, and he is a bigger threat to score fantasy points on the ground.
Luck is stuck on a team that is in full “rebuild” mode, including a porous offensive line. Right now his best weapon is 36-year-old Reggie Wayne, who is a step or two past his prime. There is just not a lot you can expect from the rookie out of Stanford.
Aside from those two, Ryan Tannehill and Brandon Weeden were the only other quarterbacks selected, going to the Dolphins and Browns respectively. Both come into situations where a quarterback is entrenched, albeit precariously, so there is a chance both will start the season riding the pine. Out of the two, however, I would give Weeden the better shot to contribute from a fantasy perspective. He is more NFL-ready than Tannehill.
Speaking of Cleveland, perhaps the biggest fantasy impact will be felt by Trent Richardson going to the Browns. He will have the opportunity to be the feature back in Cleveland, giving him fantasy relevance in redraft leagues. The big back averaged 5.8 YPC for his career at Alabama, breaking out last season after toiling in Mark Ingram’s shadow during his first two seasons.
It is relatively difficult to gauge how rookie offensive linemen will affect fantasy performance, but a couple of players who might see a boost this year are Christian Ponder in Minnesota and Isaac Redman in Pittsburgh after their teams selected Matt Kalil and David DeCastro respectively.
Dave DeCastro was a particular boon to the Steelers, falling all the way to their 24th pick despite having a top-ten grade by many scouts. With Rashard Mendenhall ailing and possibly out for the year, nobody will benefit more from this than Redman, who has a chance to post up top-ten RB numbers on the season barring injury.
Meanwhile in Minnesota, Ponder’s blind side will be locked down with Kalil for years to come, giving him peace of mind as he stands in the pocket. What that will do for his fantasy production is difficult to tell, but it will let his talent do the talking more often.
Scott:
In addition to Richardson, the first round ended with the second and third running backs coming off the board. The former is Doug Martin out of Boise State. Martin has solid receiving skills and will provide a nice complement to incumbent Buccaneer LeGarrette Blount. Martin carried the ball 615 times without a significant injury in school but is somewhat undersized for the NFL, so do not expect him to receive 20 touches a game. Interestingly, Martin has had some trouble with ball security, a problem he shares with Blount, who has 11 fumbles in his two NFL seasons. That could create some volatility in weekly leagues with workload shifts if either back puts the ball on the ground. However, Martin can still become a solid flex and possible second RB in 2012, even in a committee, because of his versatility and quickness.
The latter is David Wilson, who went to the Giants with the final selection of the round. Wilson will likely pick up the slack left by Brandon Jacobs, who departed for San Francisco in free agency. Wilson is also undersized, so he will not provide the prototypical change of pace to Ahmad Bradshaw, but Wilson explodes through tackles and finishes his runs like a much bigger back. Wilson does not have the hands that Bradshaw has. He will likely receive a third of the total team carries. His potential for short yardage touchdowns elevates him into the top-50 at RB, but he will be difficult to use in typical leagues. However, Bradshaw has had some injury problems in recent seasons and had foot surgery this offseason. If he missed any time, Wilson would become a fantasy starter.
At wide receiver, Justin Blackmon was the consensus best player and the earliest WR drafted—he went to Jacksonville at 5th overall—but Michael Floyd has landed in the better fantasy situation in Arizona. Whoever plays QB for Arizona in 2012 will almost certainly be better than Blaine Gabbert was in 2011. His -49.9 overall score was far-and-away worst at the position and provides him ample room to improve and still be the worst. Meanwhile, Larry Fitzgerald will draw consistent double teams to allow Floyd the matchup advantage versus his corner. Laurent Robinson had a nice year in Dallas, but his production came opposite Dez Bryant and the other potent weapons of their offense. It is a different story for the Jaguars. Blackmon may be asked to be shoulder the burden as the WR1, but he doesn’t have the help around him to become a WR1 or even a starter in fantasy. He is outside the top-50, while Floyd is closer to top-40.
The other pair of receivers—Kendall Wright to Tennessee and A. J. Jenkins to San Francisco—have lesser fantasy potential. Of the two, Wright has the better situation. He will hope to have Kenny Britt back and healthy on the outside, which will shelter him from the top coverage. Wright excels after the catch and may find his niche in the slot, which provides him some volume upside. Without better clarity at QB and with both Britt and TE Jared Cook as established receivers, Wright is outside of the top-50 and behind Blackmon. Jenkins joins the logjam of receivers for the 49ers, a team that barely throws the ball in any case. He has nice speed to complement the bigger receivers like Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, but with the two of them and newcomers Mario Manningham and Randy Moss, Jenkins may be on the short end of targets in 2012.
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