Fantasy: NFL Draft - Five Up, Five Down

Even after the NFL Draft, the evaluation does not stop. One of the toughest things about projecting production is taking into consideration the landing spot. For instance the depth chart, the quarterback, and the style of play for the offense can all factor into the overall analysis. Let us take a look at five prospects whose stock is up based on where they landed, and five prospects whose stock is down.

Five Up

WR Alshon Jeffery, Chicago Bears

Round 2 Pick 45

There may not have been a better landing spot for Alshon Jeffery.  As I said in my analysis of Alshon Jeffery in this article, “If he can get with a quarterback that has the ability to fit the ball into tight spaces and develop good chemistry with him, the body control and strong hands of Jeffery could become a player that teams regret passing on.” Jay Cutler may rub some people the wrong way with his body language but there is no doubting that he has one of the best arms of any quarterback in the NFL. Zipping the ball into tight spaces is exactly what Cutler will do for Alshon Jeffery. Having Brandon Marshall on the other end of the field might limit the upside of Jeffery but it will also keep defenses focused on Marshall. Johnny Knox (+2.0) was the only Chicago Bears wideout to grade positively last season so claiming that other starting spot shouldn’t be too difficult for Alshon Jeffery.

 

Ryan Broyles, Detroit Lions

Round 2 Pick 54

It seems that the Detroit front office are big fans of fortifying a strength with the drafting of Broyles to an already prolific passing attack and last years’ drafting of Nick Fairley to a strong defensive line. Either way, the slot machine Ryan Broyles lands in a situation with a franchise quarterback (Matt Stafford), a pass-happy offense (666 passing attempts were the most in the NFL), and a depth chart that is lacking in what Ryan Broyles does best – controlling the short to intermediate passing game. If Broyles checks out medically, he is a player especially valuable in point-per-reception league formats.

 

Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos

Round 3 Pick 67

After seeing Ronnie Hillman landing with the Broncos in a trade-up, my first thought was “I wish I was more vocal in my praise of Hillman.” Hillman has been a secret favorite of mine but the fact that everyone else was very cool on him had me wondering whether I was missing something. Ronnie Hillman lands in a situation with perhaps the most RB-friendly quarterback around making the calls at the line of scrimmage, Peyton Manning. While Willis McGahee and Knowshon Moreno are listed on the depth chart ahead of Hillman, the former is getting up there in age and the latter could be on a roster hot-seat with a string of injuries haunting his career early on. The fact that the Broncos traded up for Ronnie Hillman means that they really wanted him and with the 36-year-old Manning under center, chances are that they wanted him for the present as well as the future.

 

T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts

Round 3 Pick 92

The situation that T.Y. Hilton is landing in is very similar to that of Ryan Broyles. A franchise quarterback is already in place and while the depth chart at receiver already has Reggie Wayne and Austin Collie, Hilton will provide something completely different – a playmaker. If Indianapolis is looking for a big play, they will want to be putting the ball into the hands of T.Y. Hilton. The only problem for Hilton is the Colts also drafted two tight ends and most offenses don’t run a 2 TE and 3 WR set very often. Either way, if I had to decide, I would say that the best quarterback prospect I’ve ever seen Andrew Luck will find a way to get the ball into the hands of his best playmaker.

 

Danny Coale, Dallas Cowboys

Round 5 Pick 152

With the departure of Laurent Robinson to Jacksonville through free agency, someone needs to step up as the Dallas Cowboys third wide receiver. While he was just a 5th round pick (making this an educated shot in the dark) if Danny Coale can step up and secure that position he will provide yet another offensive weapon for Tony Romo to spread the ball around to. It may have partly been due to injuries, but Robinson last season played in 601 snaps and the departed 2nd tight end Martellus Bennett played 428. Those snaps will need to be accounted for, making that 4th weapon after Dez Bryant, Miles Austin, and Jason Witten a roster battle worth monitoring.

 

 

Five Down

Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Round 1 Pick 5

He may have been my highest ranked wide receiver going into the draft, but there are many red flags about the situation in Jacksonville that just don’t favor the rookie. For starters, the quarterback play is a huge question mark. Blaine Gabbert’s was so bad last year that it made the Carolina Panthers feel better about the play of Jimmy Clausen in 2010. If Gabbert struggles, how quickly will the team be to bring in new free agent Chad Henne, how will he do, and what type of chemistry will he and Blackmon have? The wide receivers were a part of the problem which has since been addressed with Blackmon as well as the free agent signings of Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans. But you also have a new offensive system with head coach Mike Mularky coming in and chances are that offense will still revolve around Jacksonville’s best player running back Maurice Jones-Drew. These variables just don’t favor Justin Blackmon at the moment.

 

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

Round 1 Pick 13

While Michael Floyd will undoubtedly become the number 2 wide receiver behind arguably the best mentor that a rookie could ask for Larry Fitzgerald, it certainly limits his upside. It’s hard to imagine that Floyd will outshine Larry Fitzgerald, who was the target of 151 of 550 passing attempts for Arizona quarterbacks – one of the highest percentage of team targets for any wideout in the NFL. If Kurt Warner were the quarterback, I would probably be singing a completely different song now. But since the signal caller will be decided between Kevin Kolb (-7.1) and John Skelton (-26.9), chances are very slim that Michael Floyd will become the Anquan Boldin of a two-headed Arizona receiving attack.

 

Stephen Hill, New York Jets

Round 2 Pick 43

Putting Stephen Hill on this list was a tough call. One would think that his almost certainly being the #2 receiver behind Santonio Holmes would be good, it may actually end up being a curse. Fact is Stephen Hill is just so raw that the best situation to land in may have been one where he isn’t tossed on to the field right away. While some may call that a high risk high reward situation, I’m not sure that is even the case because of the New York Jets passing attack, or lack-there-of. Mark Sanchez had a passer grade of -24.3 last season and his new backup Tim Tebow wasn’t much better with a passing grade of -20.3 (on half as many attempts).

 

LaMichael James, San Francisco 49ers

Round 2 Pick 61

What on Earth is going on with the San Francisco running back depth chart? Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, and Anthony Dixon was deep enough – now add in LaMichael James? He may be the only home-run hitter of that group, but for someone who hasn’t shown an ability to block out of the backfield or run behind a fullback in college, James will be fighting an uphill battle at camp and even best case scenario will be part of a running back by committee attack.

 

Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens

Round 3 Pick 84

With Ray Rice as the Baltimore Ravens running back, the role of Bernard Pierce is now best case scenario a nice handcuff or an occasional substitution when Rice needs a breather. Basically, he’s the new Ricky Williams (who has since retired). Last season, Rice played in 954 out of 1244 total snaps with Williams playing in 269 – only 108 of those snaps being carries. Unless your drafting strategy depends on Ray Rice getting into a lengthy hold-out, Bernard Pierce may now just be someone to insure your roster spot of Ray Rice with.

 

Feel free to comment below or follow Mike Daneshgar on Twitter, @MDaneshgar.

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