When it comes to making start/sit decisions in fantasy football, the advice is simple: Play the matchups, and you’ll win more often than you lose. Now that we’re in the thick of the bye weeks, knowing the matchups to avoid and exploit becomes even more important. Bellow you’ll find the key matchup stats to know from each of the 16 games for Week 16 of the 2017 NFL season.
Indianapolis @ Baltimore
Tough to trust the Colts passing game.
It’s been a rough season for T.Y. Hilton owners, and that isn’t likely to change in Week 16. Jacoby Brissett is a good bet to struggle in the contest. The Ravens have allowed just five touchdowns over their last eight games. The only player in the Colts passing game worth starting is Jack Doyle. Otherwise, it’s a good idea to avoid the Indy passing game.
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Fade the Packers.
Like the Colts, it’s really tough to trust any part of the Packers passing game with Aaron Rodgers now on injured reserve. To make matters worse, Green Bay faces a Minnesota defense that hasn’t allowed more than two touchdown passes to any opponent this season and has surrendered just one passing score over the last three weeks. With the Vikings heavy favorites, it’s hard to endorse any Packers as starting fantasy options.
Cleveland @ Chicago
DeShone Kizer will continue to struggle.
This one it’s too difficult to figure out, but there’s more to this analysis than just Kizer. If the quarterback struggles, typically the receivers do as well. Kizer’s play has hurt Josh Gordon’s upside, and this needs to be considered if you plan to start Gordon. While he still offers upside, Gordon is a risky play who should be considered more of WR3 this week.
Detroit @ Cincinnati
Fire up Theo Riddick.
The stars are aligning for a big day for Riddick this week. Cincinnati is banged up on the defensive side of the ball and could be without all of their starting linebackers. Look for the Lions to attack this weakness with lots of Riddick. He’s worth RB2 consideration.
LA Rams @ Tennessee
Tough to trust DeMarco Murray despite the good matchup.
The Titans fed Murray 18 carries last week, and he was clearly ahead of Derrick Henry in the pecking order. Despite the feature workload and a plus matchup against the Rams, it isn’t advisable to fire up Murray this week. We’ve been down this road many times with Murray this season, and he’s yet to prove himself to be a trustworthy option.
Miami @ Kansas City
Kareem Hunt continues to roll.
The rookie running back had a lot of doubters entering the fantasy football playoffs, but Hunt has been one of the league’s best fantasy assets over the last two weeks. The good times keep coming for Hunt owners this week as he faces a Dolphins defense that allows the fourth-most PPR points per game to running backs. Miami has surrendered seven rushing scores to running backs over their last seven games.
Buffalo @ New England
Dion Lewis offers major upside.
Buffalo enters the week as the No. 1 fantasy matchup for running backs, and that means good things if you happen to own Lewis. Rex Burkhead will be sidelined this week, so expect a healthy dose of Lewis in this contest. The Patriots back has been fantastic this season and is averaging a healthy 5.2 yards per carry. He’s a rock solid RB2 with upside.
Atlanta @ New Orleans
Drew Brees is a solid start.
This hasn’t been an ideal fantasy season for Brees, as he enters the week tenth among quarterbacks in fantasy score. However, Brees owners don’t want to get cute this week. This contest has the highest projected implied point total, so Brees has the potential to put up big numbers. Better yet, the Falcons have allowed seven passing scores over the last three weeks.
LA Chargers @ NY Jets
Keep riding Philip Rivers.
Last week wasn’t any fun for Rivers owners, but it’s a good idea to go back to the well with him this week. Rivers gets a very favorable matchup against a Jets defense that currently surrenders the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks. Look for Rivers to rebound in a big way.
Denver @ Washington
Vernon Davis is in play.
He’s been very tough to trust as a fantasy option down the stretch, but Davis is very interesting this week. The Broncos have struggled against tight ends this season, allowing the third-most yards per game and the fourth-most PPR points per game to the position. With the tight end pool very depleted, Davis can be considered a borderline TE1.
Tampa Bay @ Carolina
Christian McCaffrey finishes the fantasy season with a bang.
The rookie is coming off one of his best performances of the season, as he racked up 136 scrimmage yards and a score on 19 touches in Week 15. McCaffrey has the potential to put up even bigger numbers this week against a depleted Tampa Bay defense that will be without several starters. Over the last four weeks, the Bucs have allowed seven rushing scores and an average of 119 rushing yards per game to opposing backfields.
Jacksonville @ San Francisco
Avoid the 49ers.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been in play over the last two weeks as a potential streaming option, but there’s no way we can trust him against the Jaguars defense. Likewise, fantasy owners of Marquise Goodwin may want to considering fading the receiver. Jacksonville allows the second fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. Carlos Hyde is also a fade candidate. While he’s a good bet to see decent volume, the matchup is ugly. The Jags have allowed a running back to find pay dirt since Week 9.
Seattle @ Dallas
Ezekiel Elliott returns with a bang.
Six weeks was a long time to wait for Elliott owners, but the suspension is finally over and Elliott is back in play as an elite fantasy option. In recent seasons, a matchup against the Seahawks wouldn’t be considered a good thing. However, this matchup isn’t anywhere near as scary in 2017, especially after what Todd Gurley did to Seattle last week. The Seahawks have allowed nine rushing scores to running backs over their last eight games, so Elliott is a good bet to find the end zone. He’s a top-3 play this week.
NY Giants @ Arizona
If you’re desperate: Drew Stanton.
You’re going to need to be extremely desperate to make this play, but Stanton is in a good spot to produce. The Giants have been down right bad against the pass this season, allowing league highs in touchdowns (30) and net passing yards (3,811). The Cardinals offense line isn’t going to do Stanton any favors in this one, so this is far from a safe play. That being said, Stanton offers upside in this matchup.
Pittsburgh @ Houston
All in on Big Ben.
Sure, Antonio Brown isn’t playing, and that stinks. But Brown’s absence doesn’t really move the needle for Roethlisberger’s fantasy outlook this week. Houston is currently the No. 2 fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, with signal callers averaging 259 passing yards and 1.9 touchdowns against the Texans. Better yet, Houston does a good job against the run, which should force the Steelers to lean on their passing game. Ordinarily, Roethlisberger on the road isn’t an optimal play, but this week is a good bet to be an exception.
Oakland @ Philadelphia
Expect a lot of Jay Ajayi.
The former Dolphins back has seen his role steadily increase with the Eagles and has topped double-digit carries in each of the last two weeks. We should see plenty of Ajayi this week with a favorable matchup on tap against the Raiders. Oakland has surrendered four rushing scores to running backs over the last three weeks. Ajayi’s increased workload and plus matchup place him squarely in the RB2 conversation.
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