Fantasy: Dynasty Stock Market – Jahvid Best

The Detroit Lions drafted Jahvid Best 30th overall in 2010 because they envisioned a game breaking player that could help them move the chains and catch the ball out of the backfield.  In my opinion, that is exactly what they got.

Heralded by many as a top three rookie dynasty selection (behind Dez Bryant and Ryan Mathews), Best's rookie year could be described as a mixed bag, but seemed rather uneventful overall.  Now is the time to acquire Jahvid Best for your dynasty squad because, even though he will be a part of a committee, he has excellent pass catching skills and is primed for a breakout.

After just two weeks in 2010, Best had combined for 268 total yards and 5 TD's on 45 touches against Chicago and Philadelphia.  Those numbers got people's attention, but Jahvid suffered a grade 2 turf toe sprain in week 3 against Minnesota.  To his credit, Best played through the pain, but at some point in the season, ended up with turf toe on both feet.  As a result, he lacked the explosiveness that he shown in the first two weeks of the season.

This spring, the Lions spent a second round pick on running back Mikel Leshoure in order to take some of the workload off Best.  Coach Jim Schwartz has already hinted that Leshoure will be the “closer” in a two back rotation and will be asked to grind out tough yards between the tackles, especially around the goal line.

What does that mean for Best?  For one, he will continue to be relied on heavily in the passing game.  In 2010, Best was on the field for 573 plays, 317 of which were pass plays.  Let's compare Best's receiving numbers to running backs that had over 50 targets and played over 500 snaps in 2010:

Player Snaps Targets Rec % Caught Yards Yds./Rec. YAC YAC/Rec. Long TD
Steven Jackson 908 59 46 78 374 8.1 381 8.3 49 0
Arian Foster 855 78 66 84.6 604 9.2 620 9.4 50 2
LeSean McCoy 838 84 78 92.9 577 7.4 768 9.8 40 2
Ray Rice 836 75 63 84 626 9.9 644 10.2 76 1
Chris D. Johnson 826 55 44 80 245 5.6 263 6 25 1
Peyton Hillis 776 68 61 89.7 477 7.8 453 7.4 47 2
Ahmad Bradshaw 741 56 47 83.9 314 6.7 387 8.2 18 0
LaDainian Tomlinson 711 75 52 69.3 368 7.1 366 7 21 0
Matt Forte 706 65 51 78.5 549 10.8 472 9.3 89 3
Darren McFadden 669 52 47 90.4 507 10.8 551 11.7 67 3
Cadillac Williams 620 57 46 80.7 359 7.8 340 7.4 20 1
Frank Gore 618 62 46 74.2 452 9.8 478 10.4 41 2
Jamaal Charles 597 59 45 76.3 468 10.4 437 9.7 31 3
Jahvid Best 573 74 58 78.4 487 8.4 515 8.9 75 2
Felix Jones 570 51 48 94.1 450 9.4 570 11.9 71 1
Player Snaps/Trgt. Yards/Snap
Jahvid Best 7.74 0.85
LaDainian Tomlinson 9.48 0.52
Frank Gore 9.97 0.73
LeSean McCoy 9.98 0.69
Jamaal Charles 10.12 0.78
Matt Forte 10.86 0.78
Cadillac Williams 10.88 0.58
Arian Foster 10.96 0.71
Ray Rice 11.15 0.75
Felix Jones 11.18 0.79
Peyton Hillis 11.41 0.61
Darren McFadden 12.87 0.76
Ahmad Bradshaw 13.23 0.42
Chris D. Johnson 15.02 0.30
Steven Jackson 15.30 0.41

Even though Best only played 573 snaps, he had some very impressive receiving numbers when compared to a “who's who” of receiving running backs in 2010.

  • Ranked #5 overall in targets
  • Ranked #3 overall in longest run
  • Best tied for #4 overall in receiving touchdowns
  • Best ranked #8 overall in yards per reception
  • Best ranked #9 overall in yards after the catch per reception

Most importantly, Best was ranked #1 overall in snaps per target and yards per snap. He is targeted an unbelievable once every 7.74 snaps and he gains .85 yards per snap played.  Those are some impressive numbers against tough competition, especially when you consider the fact that he played with turf toe on both feet.

Looking at Best's run distribution from his rushing report, we get a better sense of where Best excels as a runner:

LE TE LT LT LG LG ML C MR RG RG RT RT FB RE
Att. 172 34 8 15 21 22 24 23 25
Yds 567 156 33 35 50 68 52 71 102
Avg 3.3 4.6 4.1 2.3 2.4 3.1 2.2 3.1 4.1
YCo 308 62 19 20 32 32 27 28 88
LG 45 33 20 8 16 14 15 17 45

Best averaged over 4.0 YPC when he ran off either end, but could not do better than 3.1 YPC when trying to run through any of the gaps between the tackles.  Not surprisingly, Best also had his longest runs of the season around both left and right end.  The Lions plan to pound the ball between the tackles with Mikel Leshoure to wear down defenses and to keep Best fresh.  Against a worn out defense, Best's game-breaking speed could result in big chunks of yardage gained.

In 2010, the Lions showed that they were not afraid to get Jahvid Best the ball, even though he only played 573 snaps on two injured feet.  Currently, Mike Clay has Best listed as the 16th overall RB in his PPR rankings with 233 fantasy points. That is spot on for 2011, but is his floor for the near future.  I am bullish on the Lions in general, but I think one of the best off-season dynasty buys is Jahvid Best.

Follow Nishant on Twitter @PFF_Nishant as well as our main Twitter feed @ProFootbalFocus

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