Fantasy: Dynasty Slants – Week 2 Recap

Once is a fluke; twice is a trend.

For stat geeks like myself, having another week of data to review can only help us bring more clarity to the 2011 season. There have been an unfortunate number of injuries suffered by several star players (Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles being the latest), but the show must go on. Dynasty leagues are won by maximizing opportunities, and there are several situations this week that need to be monitored and previous biases that need to be removed.

However, with that in mind, here are the slants this week:

Rex Grossman                    

This is one sentence I never thought I would write: Rex Grossman is a viable top-12 fantasy quarterback. Some Peyton Manning dynasty owners were forced to pickup Grossman late in the offseason. While many of these owners thought they found a temporary fix, they may have found a more permanent solution. Rex Grossman is no longer a punch line.

Grossman’s NFL career has been anything but typical. He was a first round draft pick in 2003, and did not play a full season until 2006 when he was the starting quarterback for the Bears’ Super Bowl run. Grossman lost his starting job in the 2007 season and remained with the Bears until 2008. He then made a stop in Houston in 2009 before finally landing with Washington last season. Grossman started the final three games for Washington to end the 2010 season. Looking back at the past three years does not offer us much in terms of analysis, only to see that Grossman made a complete turnaround under head coach Mike Shanahan:

 
Many assumed it would be John Beck, not Grossman, that would start this year (myself included). Beck was also a first round pick in 2007 and was thought to be a favorite of Shanahan. Plus, how could we take Grossman seriously. He lost his job in Chicago after starting in the Super Bowl and famously predicted the Redskins would win the NFC East this year.

One of the early storylines this season has been the impressive play of the Washington Redskins, including their new starting quarterback in Rex Grossman. Grossman’s play so far in his time in Washington has me willing to give him a second look and remove any prior bias I had against him as a starting quarterback. He currently is ranked fifth among quarterbacks in our exclusive ratings (+10.3) and is ranked 12th in fantasy points scored. Better yet, Grossman is still only 31 years old and is making better decisions on the field. He is more of a journeyman type at this point than a franchise quarterback, but he is a younger dynasty option than most, and may have played himself into a permanent role in Washington.

It may seem like we are in an alternate reality where a much-maligned player like Grossman is a viable fantasy option, but if you are late to come to terms with this, you could miss on a great opportunity to improve your dynasty team. Do not be surprised if Grossman finishes the season in the top-12 with an improved cast of weapons at this disposal.
 
What should I do with Jamaal Charles?
 
If you are like me, Jamaal Charles was the centerpiece to many of my dynasty teams.

The first thing to do is not panic if you own Charles on any of your dynasty teams. While we do not know the extent of the ACL tear yet, we do know that he is only 24 years old with 499 career regular season carries under his belt. There is a good probability that he will return to his prior form and still be a viable dynasty option for several more years. You will likely get several low-ball offers for Charles from other owners looking to take advantage of a knee-jerk reaction to his injury. Patience is the key, so reserve a spot at the end of your bench or take advantage of an injured reserve spot and forget about Charles until 2012.

On the flip side, non-Jamaal Charles owners should attempt to acquire him, especially if they are in a rebuilding phase. Charles will return to form, and the cost to acquire him will be significantly less than at any other point in the future. Charles is easily one of the most talented running backs in the NFL, finishing in the top-10 in PPR leagues for the last two seasons in a reduced role under head coach Todd Haley. Charles led all running backs in fantasy points per snap played (0.48) last year.
 
Early Leaders: Fantasy Points (PPR) Per Snap
 

Here are the early top-10 leaders by position (minimum 20 snaps):
 

Most of the usual suspects occupy the top-10 at the quarterback position. Vick has not quite been himself yet this season, hurting fantasy owners who used a high selection on him to be the centerpiece of their team. Stafford is well on his way to his projected breakout season, while Cam Newton and Kevin Kolb are surprise inclusions on this list. Newton has been one of the biggest stories through two games, and Kolb has adjusted well to his new surroundings in Arizona. Henne suffered from a rough Week 2, but his huge Week 1 performance still qualifies him here.
 

Fred Jackson has been sensational through two games, but that has not stopped C.J. Spiller from making some noise himself. Spiller’s 6.2 rushing yards after contact per attempt leads all running backs and he is primed for a breakout sooner rather than later. His talent is jumping off the screen. Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews are sharing snaps evenly, but it is clear it will be Mathews’ job before the season is out if Tolbert continues to disappoint in short yardage and with his fumbles. Roy Helu made an impressive debut with 31 yards rushing after contact.

Several of these wide receivers will not qualify for this list in a few weeks including Jesse Holley and Doug Baldwin. Jordy Nelson has been the best third option for the Packers behind Jennings and Finley. Kenny Britt has arrived as a fantasy WR1 in redraft and dynasty. I downgraded him in dynasty leagues this offseason because of his legal issues, but if he can stay on the straight and narrow, he is a top-10 WR until further notice. Steve L. Smith has rejuvenated his career and is more of a hold candidate than a sell-high.

Evan Moore could do some damage with more playing time, but for now he is a fantasy afterthought. Chandler and King will experience a considerable regression for the remainder of the season and should not be rostered. Hernandez will be out for a few games, but he and Rob Gronkowski have been two of the best tight ends in the game through the first two games. Fred Davis has surpassed Chris Cooley, and his upside is considerable as a top-10 option going forward.

Follow Bryan Fontaine on Twitter: @Bryan_Fontaine

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